The chief intent of the thesis is to analyze the relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values in selected Asiatic markets, viz. Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines and Thailand over the period from 2001 to 2011, integrating the impacts of the 2007 fiscal crisis.
With the important growing of international trade and the increased integrating in fiscal markets, exchange rate has been considered one of the chief factors act uponing the concern profitableness and stock monetary values ( Kim, 2003 ) . Besides, analyzing the relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values is necessary as it has both theoretical and practical significance ( Hatemi-J and Roca, 2005 ) . Theoretically, this relationship is an indispensable input to open macro-economy theoretical accounts every bit good as hedge theoretical accounts ; practically, when understanding the linkage between stock and currency monetary values, investors are able to diversify the portfolios and hedge their investings ( Hatemi-J and Roca, 2005 ) . Given this, the exchange rate-stock monetary value relation has received much attending in the country of empirical finance for the past few decennaries.
Empirical surveies to verify the relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values have been carried out since 1970s ; yet, the decisions have been mixed ( Alagidede et al. , 2011 ) . Furthermore, more attending has been paid to research the exchange rate-stock monetary value relation under the crisis period because it is the clip when policymakers may step in to alter exchange rates ; therefore, it is critical to understand how alterations in foreign exchange market will impact other markets ( Hatemi-J and Roca, 2005 ) .
Therefore, this thesis will try to lend to the literature by analyzing the interaction between stock monetary values and exchange rates in selected Asiatic states under both the normal conditions and the crisis period. The thesis aims to reply the undermentioned research inquiries:
First, is at that place any long-term relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values in selected Asiatic markets?
Second, is at that place any causal relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values? If yes, what is the way, the mark and the magnitude of this causal relationship?
Third, how has the 2007 fiscal crisis affected the exchange rate-stock monetary value relation in chosen markets?
And 4th, is at that place any difference in the interaction between stock and currency markets in Asian developed and emerging markets?
To reply these above inquiries, we examine the long-term and short-term association between exchange rates and stock monetary values. First, the long-term relationship is explored utilizing the cointegration trials, in which both the conventional and the more improved trial taking history of a structural interruption are employed. Second, the short-term relationship and the way of causality are tested utilizing the Granger causality trials in the vector autoregressive ( VAR ) theoretical account or the vector mistake rectification theoretical account ( VECM ) . Besides, we besides use the impulse response maps ( IRFs ) and forecast mistake discrepancy decompositions ( FEVDs ) to research the mark and magnitude of the relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values.
The construction of the thesis is provided in the following subdivision.
Structure of the survey
The remainder of the thesis is structured as follows:
Chapter 2 presents the theoretical background for the thesis by discoursing possible accounts for the exchange rate-stock monetary value relation and briefly reexamining the methodological analysiss used in old surveies. This chapter besides highlights the related empirical surveies refering both the international and the Asiatic markets.
Chapter 3 explains the information set used in this survey ; specifically, how the informations are collected and the preliminary statistics of the information series.
Chapter 4 discusses the elaborate methodological analysis, including the construct and mathematical specification of the theoretical accounts employed. The methods to gauge the parametric quantities and to give decisions on these trials are besides described.
Chapter 5 generalizes the empirical consequences of the assorted trials mentioned in chapter 4 and discusses the findings on the relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values in selected markets.
Chapter 6 draws decisions on this survey by sum uping the aims and general findings. Furthermore, restrictions, suggestions and recommendations from this survey are besides provided.
Chapter 2: Literature Reappraisal
This chapter will reexamine the theoretical background and empirical surveies on the interaction between exchange rates and stock monetary values, which has received much attending for the past 40 old ages. Specifically, the chapter is organized as follows:
Section 2.1 discusses theoretical attacks explicating the being of the linkage between exchange rates and stock monetary values. Besides, common theoretical accounts used in the literature to measure this relationship are presented in the 2nd portion of this subdivision.
Section 2.2 reappraisals related empirical surveies conducted in both international markets and Asiatic markets. These surveies have reported that there is a important correlativity between exchange rates and stock monetary values but the decisions have non yet reached a consensus. These surveies will be used as mentions to compare with the consequences of this survey in the subsequent chapters.
Finally, subdivision 2.3 summarizes the chapter.
Theoretical links between exchange rates and stock monetary values
This subdivision concentrates on supplying possible theoretical accounts for the presence of the relation between stock monetary values and exchange rates. The current literature suggests a figure of attacks to explicate the nexus between exchange rates and stock monetary values ; yet, no understanding has been made on which attack is superior. Therefore, it is necessary as the first measure of our analyses to show the two common attacks, the traditional attack and the portfolio balance attack, to construe the relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values.
The traditional attack ( Dornbusch and Fisher, 1980 ) represents that there is a causal relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values which runs from the former to the latter. Based on the efficient market hypothesis, the traditional attack respects stock monetary values as the present values of a house ‘s expected future hard currency flows. Besides, from the macroeconomic position, it is assumed that a state ‘s current history is an of import determiner of exchange rates. Motions in exchange rates will impact the state ‘s existent economic variables such as income and end product ; so in bend, act upon the house ‘s fight, gaining and net worth ( Stavarek ( 2005 ) ) . Consequently, exchange rate fluctuations affect the house ‘s hard currency flows and will be reflected in the house ‘s stock monetary values ( Richards et al. , 2009 ) .
Furthermore, the manner exchange rates influence stock monetary values depends on the features of the companies. When the direct citation is employed and the house is a net exporter, there is a positive causal relationship which can be interpreted as follows: depreciation in the domestic currency will do local exporters more fight as their exports become cheaper. Higher exports lead to higher incomes and therefore, addition stock monetary values ( Granger et Al. ( 2000 ) , Stavarek ( 2005 ) ) .
Portfolio Balance Approach
The portfolio balance attack, on the other manus, suggests a negative relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values and the causality runs from stock monetary values to interchange rates. Harmonizing to this attack, exchange rates ‘ function is to equilibrate the supply and demand of domestic every bit good as foreign assets. When there is an addition in domestic stock monetary values, investors tend to purchase more domestic assets while at the same time selling foreign assets, taking to the local currency grasp or a lessening in exchange rates ( Stavarek ( 2005 ) , Pan et Al. ( 2007 ) ) .
Furthermore, another channel that stock monetary value motions can impact alterations in exchange rates is through investors ‘ wealth and money demand, which rely on stock markets ‘ public presentation ( Climent et al. , 2004 ) . During difficult times, stock monetary values lessening and do a decrease in the domestic investors ‘ wealth. Demand for money is lowered and thereby, involvement rates decrease. Hence, capital escapes may lift, ensuing in the currency depreciation or a growing of exchange rates ( Climent et al. ( 2004 ) , Pan et Al. ( 2007 ) ) . Again, this shows the negative linkage between stock monetary values and exchange rates.
It is besides noted that how exchange rates react to alterations in stock monetary values depends on the cleavage and liquidness of stock markets. If stock markets are extremely segmented and illiquid, high dealing costs will do it hard to purchase or sell stocks and big foreign currency exposure will impede foreign investings ( Richards et al. , 2009 ) .
In short, from theoretical position, stock markets and foreign exchange markets can interact in assorted ways. The deficiency of understanding between these above attacks gives rise to empirical surveies to look into the interaction between exchange rates and stock monetary values. In this thesis, the attacks to explicate the relation between stock monetary values and exchange rates will be examined utilizing assorted theoretical accounts discussed in the subsequent parts.
Review of theoretical accounts used to look into the relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values
In order to look into the relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values, this thesis focuses on the waies of causality between exchange rates and stock monetary values utilizing trials in the VAR model, including the cointegration trials and the Granger causality trials. Yet, before depicting these trials in inside informations, it is necessary to acquire the overview of the common theoretical accounts used in the literature to analyze the interaction between stock markets and foreign exchange markets.
In this subdivision, general descriptions of the common theoretical accounts employed by old surveies are reviewed in the sequence of clip: foremost, the early arrested development theoretical accounts and 2nd, the trials in the VAR model. It is noted that this subdivision merely briefly introduces the theoretical accounts while the elaborate specification of the theoretical accounts used in the thesis will be discussed in the undermentioned chapters.
Early arrested development theoretical accounts
Early on empirical plants concentrate on the contemporary relation between stock monetary values and exchange rates utilizing the correlativity and arrested development theoretical accounts ( Stavarek ( 2005 ) , Rahman and Uddin ( 2009 ) ) . In these arrested development theoretical accounts, either stock returns or exchange rate motions are employed as the dependant variable ; the other is considered the independent variable.
Harmonizing to the traditional attack, exchange rates lead stock monetary values ; hence, the relationship is as follows:
( 2.1 )
Where: is the rate of return on house I ‘s common stock, is the rate of fluctuation of exchange rate at clip T ( t =1, … , T ) and is the error term.
Beginning: Jorion ( 1990 )
On the other manus, following the portfolio balance attack, stock monetary values do exchange rates with a negative correlativity:
Where is the exchange rate alterations, is the stock return derived function ( domestic minus foreign ) , and is the fluctuation of involvement rate derived function.
Beginning: Solnik ( 1987 )
Although the correlativity and arrested development analysis are easy to follow, they have some restrictions. First, arrested development analysis purely requires the premise of stationary in order to avoid specious consequences ( Stavarek, 2005 ) . Furthermore, due to the stationary demand, the first-differenced informations are normally used alternatively of the degrees. However, by differencing the variables, some information about the correlativity between the degrees of variables may be lost, which so changes the relationship between them ( Stavarek, 2005 ) . Besides, Richards et Al. ( 2009 ) quoted Brooks ( 2002 ) that standard arrested development model merely assumes the contemporary relationship between dependant and independent variables. Hence, standard arrested development analysis is non equal to connote the causal relationship ( Richards et al. , 2009 ) .
Due to these restrictions, subsequently empirical surveies have adopted more sophisticated econometric methodological analysiss, which are the cointegration trials and the causality trials to look into the causal relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values.
Vector autoregressive ( VAR ) theoretical accounts
This thesis usage theoretical accounts in the VAR model to inspect the causal relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values. The VAR theoretical accounts have been known to be helpful in capturing and calculating the dynamic behaviour of the clip series ( L & A ; uuml ; tkepohl, 2011 ) . As there are different signifiers of the VAR theoretical accounts, this subdivision concentrates on the VAR theoretical account in decreased signifier and introduces the construct of the cointegration and causality trials.
Harmonizing to Richards et Al. ( 2009 ) , a VAR theoretical account is required to look into the causal relationship between variables because the causal analysis relies on the premise that the current value of one variable may be affected by the lagged values of other variables. The VAR theoretical account incorporates the lagged values of variables as follows:
Where is a k-dimensional vector of a clip series ( ; are matrices of coefficients ; is a k-dimensional vector of the white noise procedure and.
Beginning: L & A ; uuml ; tkepohl, 2011
This theoretical account is known as the VAR theoretical account in decreased signifier because all the variables in the right-hand side are predetermined ( lagged values ) ( L & A ; uuml ; tkepohl, 2011 ) . The VAR theoretical accounts provide readings about the dynamic relationship between involved variables, one of which is the causal relationship proposed by Granger in 1969 ( L & A ; uuml ; tkepohl, 2011 ) . However, before traveling to the Granger causality trial, it is of import to observe that one demand of the VAR theoretical account is the clip series are stationary. As a consequence, empirical surveies have adopted the cointegration analysis to cover with non-stationary clip series before using the Granger causality trial.
The thought of cointegration is postulated by Engle and Granger ( 1987 ) and tested by a two-step cointegration process as follows:
Measure 1: Suppose two clip series are integrated of order one ( ) , which are non-stationary in degrees but stationary in first differences. We run the undermentioned arrested development:
Where is the cointegration parametric quantity and is the residuary obtained from the cointegrating arrested development.
Measure 2: Use the augmented Dickey-Fuller ( ADF ) unit root trial on the residuary obtained from ( 2.4 ) .
If is found to be stationary, so are said to be cointegrated. The presence of cointegration suggests a long-term relationship between the variables and any divergences from this long-term equilibrium relationship will be adjusted.
Although the Engle and Granger cointegration trial is easy conducted, it has some defects ( Shirvani and Wilbratte, 1997 ) . First, the consequences depend on which variable, , is chosen as the dependant variable. If the sample size is big, it is suggested that the unit root consequences could be similar on the remainders obtained from regressing and from regressing. However in many instances, the sample size is smaller than the needed size and thereby, the unit root consequences are different. Second, this trial relies on a two-step process ; therefore, mistakes in the first measure are brought to the 2nd measure, doing the consequences untrusty. Furthermore, when several cointegrating vectors exist, the Engle-Granger attack may bring forth a additive combination of these vectors ( Shirvani and Wilbratte, 1997 ) .
Another typical method to prove for cointegration is the Johansen-Juselius cointegration trial, which overcomes the drawbacks of the Engle-Granger method. The Johansen-Juselius method is a one-step appraisal leting for multiple cointegrating vectors. This survey will follow the Johansen-Juselius trial and another advanced cointegration trial, known as the Gregory-Hansen cointegration trial to analyze the long-term relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values.
After analyzing the long-term relationship by utilizing the cointegration analysis, the Granger causality trial is performed to research the short-term linkage and the causal relation between variables. The Granger causality trial indicates a clip series Granger-causes another clip series if is forecasted by utilizing lagged values of non merely but besides ( Pan et al. , 2007 ) . When there is no cointegration, Granger ( 1969 ) suggested the standard causality trial for two variables:
Where are two stationary clip series ; p is the figure of slowdowns ; are two uncorrelated white-noise series. The decision on the causal way depends on whether the coefficients and/or are important or non.
However, Engle and Granger ( 1987 ) argued that the standard Granger causality trial is suited merely when there is no long-term equilibrium relationship. Otherwise, the Granger trial should include the error-correction footings obtained from the cointegration trial to capture the short-term kineticss needed to acquire back into the long-term equilibrium. This is known as the vector mistake rectification theoretical account ( VECM ) .
This thesis will follow both the Granger causality trial in VAR theoretical account and the VECM to research the causal relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values.
This subdivision aims to reexamine the empirical surveies on the relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values. Although there is a important literature on the association between foreign exchange markets and stock markets, the decisions and findings are still assorted, even for the same markets. Besides, as this thesis chooses Asiatic markets as mark markets, this subdivision divides empirical surveies into two groups: surveies consider the international markets and surveies concern the Asiatic markets. It makes clearer to compare and contrast the consequences of this survey with past research in the following chapters.
Surveies on international markets
Empirical research on the international markets will be reviewed based on the attacks mentioned in subdivision 2.1.1, which are the traditional attack and the portfolio balance attack. In fact, there is no consensus on which attack is favoured as there are some surveies corroborating either the traditional or portfolio balance attack ; some surveies propose both attacks while others find no interaction between stock markets and foreign exchange markets. Besides, it is besides clear that early surveies on the exchange rate-stock monetary value relation focused more on mature markets and so, the involvement has switched to other new developed and emerging markets.
First, a figure of early surveies reported no relationship bing between exchange rates and stock monetary values. The first research on the exchange rate-stock monetary value relation was performed by Franck and Young in 1972. Using the correlativity arrested development analyses, they found no interaction between stock monetary values and motions in exchange rates. Similarly, Ang and Ghallab ( 1976 ) examined the consequence of the US dollar devaluation on the transnational companies ‘ stock monetary values and found no relationship.
Solnik ( 1987 ) regarded stock returns as alterations in economic activity and trial the relation between economic activity and exchange rates. Monthly and quarterly informations from July 1973 to December 1983 were employed on eight selected developed states. The multivariate arrested development and cross correlativity analysis were adopted. The survey indicated alterations in exchange rates had a low power in explicating stock returns. Jorion ( 1990 ) followed the survey by Solnik ( 1987 ) , proving the relation between the US dollar effectual exchange rate and the US transnational companies ‘ stock returns from 1971 to 1987 and reported a modest relationship.
Stavarek ‘s survey in 2005 gathered monthly informations of exchange rates and stock indices in the USA every bit good as in four old and four new EU-member states to analyze the relationship. The writer employed the cointegration and the Granger causality trials and found it non possible to register any long-term or short-term relation between stock monetary values and exchange rates.
On the other manus, some surveies have backed up the traditional attack. For illustration, Aggarwal ( 1981 ) studied the contemporary relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values in the USA, utilizing arrested development theoretical accounts and monthly informations for the period from 1974 to 1978. This survey reported a positive correlativity and was consistent with the traditional attack.
Ma and Kao ( 1990 ) employed monthly informations from January 1973 to December 1983 and investigated how stock monetary values interact to interchange rate motions in six industrialised states: the UK, France, Canada, West Germany, Italy and Japan. The findings supported the traditional attack that the relationship depended on whether the economic system was strong at exports or imports. A local currency grasp negatively influenced stock monetary values if the state had advantages at exports and frailty versa if it was a net-importer.
Besides, the portfolio balance attack is besides reinforced by the survey of Najang and Seifert in 1992 when they investigated the relationship between involvement rate differential, exchange rate volatility and stock return. They employed day-to-day informations from the USA, Canada, the UK, Germany and Japan to carry on the GARCH theoretical accounts and indicated that absolute alterations in stock returns and involvement rate derived functions positively influenced exchange rate motions.
However, the bulk of old surveies have confirmed both the traditional and portfolio balance attack. For case, Ajayi and Mougoue ( 1996 ) applied the causality trial in VECM to analyze the relation between stock monetary values and exchange rates in eight industrial economic systems from 1985 to 1991. The consequences showed that an addition in stock monetary values had a negative short-run but a positive long-term influence on currency values. On the other manus, currency depreciation affected stock monetary values in a negative manner in both the short tally and long tally.
Tabak ( 2006 ) studied the dynamic linkage between stock monetary values and exchange rates in Brazil. The information set contained the day-to-day IBOVESPA index monetary value and the exchange rate from August 1, 1994 to May 14, 2001 ( Tabak, 2006 ) . To prove the connexion between the variables, the survey employed the improved Gregory-Hansen cointegration trial, which allows for a structural interruption in the clip series, the additive and nonlinear Granger causality trials. No long- tally relationship was detected but a additive causality from stock monetary values to interchange rates and a nonlinear causality from exchange rates to stock monetary values were found, which supported both the traditional and portfolio balance attack.
Recently, Alagidede ( 2011 ) investigated the causal relationship between stock monetary values and exchange rates in Australia, Canada, Japan, Switzerland, and the UK from January 1992 to December 2005. The survey detected no long-term relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values. Sing the short-term relation, there was a causal linkage from exchange rates to stock monetary values in Canada, Switzerland, and UK while the causal relation from stock monetary values to interchange rates was merely found for Switzerland. Furthermore, the nonlinear causality trial indicated causality from stock monetary values to interchange rates in Japan.
Parsva and Lean ( 2011 ) carried out the research on six In-between Eastern states before and during the 2007 fiscal crisis. Monthly clip series informations were used and the research period was from January 2004 to September 2010. In line with most old surveies, the paper employed the cointegration and Granger causality trials. The consequence showed that the interaction between the fiscal markets grew during the fiscal convulsion. Before the crisis, bi-directional causality was found merely for 3 states while it was observed for all states except for Iran during the crisis.
In short, the consequences of the old surveies on the international markets are assorted even when similar theoretical accounts or markets are employed. This grounds is besides shown for the old surveies on the Asiatic markets, which are reviewed in the undermentioned portion.
Surveies on Asiatic markets
The relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values in the Asiatic markets has received more attending since the 1997 crisis when both the stock and currency markets experienced terrible impairment. Just like the international markets, surveies on the Asiatic markets besides provide conflicting decisions.
Yu ( 1997 ) chose taking East Asiatic markets: Singapore, Hong Kong and Tokyo to carry on the research. The informations were day-to-day informations of topographic point exchange rates and stock indices over the period from January 3, 1983 to June 15, 1984. The writer besides applied the Granger causality trial and found bi-directional causal relationship in Tokyo. In Hong Kong, merely changes in exchange rates Granger caused alterations in stock monetary values while in Singapore, no causality was detected. Additionally, a stable long-term correlativity between the degrees of variables was affirmed for all markets.
Using the same methodological analysis as Yu ( 1997 ) , Ajayi et Al. ( 1998 ) tried to analyze the difference of the association between exchange rates and stock monetary values in both developed and developing states. The survey took daily informations in seven advanced markets from 1985 to 1991 and eight Asiatic developing markets from 1987 to 1991. Sing advanced markets, the relationship was found consistent with the portfolio balance attack. Sing emerging markets, non-significant causal connexion was reported in Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia. Harmonizing to the research, the differences of the exchange rate-stock monetary value relation in these states were due to the structural differences in each state ‘s stock and currency markets. Specifically, the relationship in emerging states appeared to be weaker because emerging states had less stable political environment and hence, they were smaller, less attractive than advanced states ( Richards, 2009 ) .
Granger et Al. ( 2000 ) was one of the surveies concentrating on the Asiatic convulsion in 1997. The information set were day-to-day informations from January 3, 1986 to June 16, 1998 for nine Asiatic states enduring from the fiscal crisis. To better dissect the relationship, three sub-periods were chosen as there were clear groundss of structural interruptions in the clip series: the 1987-crash period, the after-crash period and the Asiatic crisis period ( Granger et al. , 2000 ) . The chief methods used were the Granger causality trial and the impulse reaction analysis. During the first period, all states except for Singapore had a weak stock price-exchange rate relation. The 2nd period once more showed exchange rates caused stock monetary values in Singapore while in Taiwan and Hong Kong, the consequence was opposite. Given the impact of the 1997 crisis, the consequence in South Korea was consistent with the traditional attack whereas the consequence from Philippines market was as per the portfolio balance attack ( Granger et al. , 2000 ) . Except for Indonesia and Japan uncovering no relation, the remainder markets reported important feedbacks.
Muhammad and Rasheed ( 2002 ) used monthly informations of stock monetary values and exchange rates in India, Pakistan, Siri Lanka and Bangladesh from 1994 to 2000. Bangladesh and Siri Lanka ‘s markets appeared to hold long-term bi-directional causality while no relation was detected for the other two states. Using the same states for the period 1995-2001, nevertheless, Smyth and Nandha ( 2003 ) indicated no long-term relation between these variables. In short-term, alterations in exchange rates caused that in stock monetary values in India and Siri Lanka.
Beer and Hebein ( 2008 ) explored the interaction between stock monetary values and exchange rates utilizing EGARCH theoretical account for two groups: four developed states ( USA, Canada, UK, Japan ) and five emerging 1s ( Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea, India, Philippines ) . Using hebdomadal shutting monetary values and exchange rates, the consequences indicated positive monetary value spillovers from currency markets to stock markets in Japan, Canada, USA, India and South Korea. Furthermore, a important continuity of volatility in both markets was affirmed for the emerging markets but non for the industrialised states.
From the reappraisal of empirical surveies, it can be seen that neither the traditional nor the portfolio balance attack is confirmed to outdo explicate the exchange rate-stock monetary value relation. The way of causality and the grade of mutuality between these two markets are besides controversial. This fact, hence, gives motives to carry on farther probe on the relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values.
Chapter 2 provided the theoretical background for the thesis and reviewed the literature in order to construct the foundation for empirical analysis in the undermentioned chapters. Besides, the construct, advantages and issues of the common theoretical accounts used in the literature were discussed.
From the literature reappraisal, we can pull some points: First, although past researches and surveies have greatly added to the apprehension of the exchange rate-stock monetary value linkage, the consequences are diversified given the different picks of markets, survey periods and theoretical accounts. Second, sing the Asiatic markets, while there are a figure of surveies interested in researching the influence of the 1997 Asiatic crisis on the interaction between stock and currency monetary values, the impact of the recent planetary crisis in 2007 has non been comprehensively examined. Third, there are still some issues with the conventional trials that need to be solved so as to give dependable consequences.
Therefore, taking seven Asiatic markets, the thesis will lend to the literature by researching the causal relationship between exchange rates and stock monetary values utilizing updated informations from 2001 to 2011, uniting the impact of the 2007 planetary fiscal crisis. Furthermore, the thesis will use more advanced trials to work out some of the issues mentioned in the conventional trials discussed in subdivision 2.1.2. The undermentioned chapters will discourse in inside informations the information set and the methodological analysis employed in this thesis.