“ India and Pakistan can travel on shouting on Kashmir for all clip to come, but an early colony on the Indus Waterss is indispensable for care of peace in the sub-continent ”[ 1 ]
Anonymous Indian Official ( 1951 )
1. The British on go forthing the sub-continent divided it into two Nation States viz. the Islamic Republic of Pakistan and the Republic of India based on Jinnah ‘s two state theory. This in many ways left more issues unresolved than it had helped decide which led to broad spread force, hatred and mistrust amongst the siblings.
2. Of the many unsolved issues ; one of the primary 1 was the rift over the abundant Waterss of the Indus River Basin on how to pull off and portion this cohesive and unitary web of irrigation. Partition left the beginning rivers of the Indus basin in India. Pakistan felt threatened that India would command the feeders that fed H2O into the Pakistani part of the basin. Initially, the distribution of H2O was governed by the Inter-Dominion Accord of 04 May 1948 vide which India was to let go of sufficient sum of H2O for which the Government of Pakistan would do payments. This was supposed to be a stop spread agreement to provide for the immediate H2O demands of Pakistan pending concluding colony. Neither India nor Pakistan could come to a reciprocally agreeable agreement and Pakistan wanted to take the affair to the International Court of Justice but India refused, saying that it required a bilateral solution. By 1951, dead end between the two sides was lending to increased Pakistan ill will with India. Both states wanted to happen a solution, albeit compromising their places.
3. In 1951 David Lilienthal, former president of the Tennessee Valley Authority visited both India and on his return to the US, wrote an article sketching his feelings and recommendations. These included stairss from the psychological – a call to still Pakistani intuitions of Indian purposes for the Indus headwaters, to the practical – a proposal for greater storage installations and concerted direction. Lilienthal besides suggested that international funding be arranged, possibly by the World Bank, to fund the workings and findings of an “ Indus Engineering Corporation, ” to include representatives from both provinces, every bit good as from the World Bank[ 2 ]. The said proposal was accepted by all the three
parties. The first meeting was held in Washington in May 1952 followed by legion other deliberations without any result for the following two old ages. It was suggested by the World Bank that both Pakistan and India submit their ain estimations of H2O flow and distribution of the same between both of them. On 06 Oct 1953 both the programs were submitted and while the available H2O flow was about same ; 119 Million Acre Feet ( MAF ) by India and 118 MAF by Pakistan the distribution varied greatly as reflected in Table 1.
4. In 1954, the World Bank, frustrated with no advancement eventually offered its ain proposal. It allotted the three eastern feeders of the basin viz. the Sutlej, the Beas and the Ravi to India and the three western feeders, the Indus, the Jhelum and the Chenab to Pakistan both with a few exclusions. To replace the eastern river supply lost by Pakistan it was proposed that canals and storage dikes were to be constructed to deviate Waterss from the western rivers which would chiefly be financed by the United States and the United Kingdom. The Indian side accepted the World Bank proposal but non so with Pakistan who eventually relented owing to force per unit area from within its ain constitution as besides the universe environment. This solution helped in uncluttering the staying outstanding issues and the Treaty was signed by the Prime Ministers of both states in 1960.The chronology of Indus Waters Treaty ( IWT ) is given in Figure1 below
Fig 1: Chronology of Indus Water Treaty
5. The IWT is the longest understanding that has been dependably implemented and upheld by both India and Pakistan. There have nevertheless been legion allegations and antagonistic allegations by both sides as to the ‘numerous misdemeanors ‘ that have taken topographic point. Pakistan has raised many expostulations in the recent yesteryear to Indian undertakings such as the Tulbul Navigation Project, the Baglihar Project and The Kishenganga Project and these have been bone of contention of both sides. Environmental alterations and population detonation has besides farther complicated the state of affairs.
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
6. IWT was a theoretical account pact which has now become a beginning of struggle. This paper seeks to analyze the impact of IWT on Indo-Pak dealingss with particular mention to the three Western Rivers.
7. The three Western Rivers of the Indus Water Basin are a beginning of nutriment for Pakistan because of which the IWT had been a sustainable pact but with the altering times it has become a beginning of possible struggle between India and Pakistan. Hence, the IWT which had been a theoretical account pact has now become a beginning of possible struggle between both the states.
Justification OF THE STUDY
8. The IWT which was signed in 1960 was more out of irresistible impulse for being than with an purpose to work out a beginning of struggle. The political, economic, environmental and population indices were different at that clip and hence with the transition of clip with the alteration in the above variables the IWT is coming under force per unit area progressively by the twenty-four hours.
9. The three Western Rivers which were allotted to Pakistan have been a beginning of nutriment for them. With the transition of clip, owing to assorted factors ; some internal to Pakistan and some external, the H2O demand-supply balance is under terrible strain. This has led to an already of all time leery Pakistan weeping foul about the Indian undertakings and inquiring them to be put on clasp therefore farther intensifying tenseness in the already delicate vicinity.
10. It is therefore pertinent to analyze the effects and influences of these western rivers in the dealingss both past and hereafter between India and Pakistan.
11. This survey will concentrate on the basic dogmas of the IWT, its assorted commissariats with peculiar mention to the western rivers, the assorted undertakings undertaken by the Pakistan authorities on these rivers, beginning of use and wastage of H2O with impact of environment variables, beginning of struggle between the both the states and its impact on future dealingss.
METHOD OF DATA COLLECTION
12. The information has chiefly been derived from the the cyberspace and College Library, Defence Services Staff College, Wellington. Bibliography of the beginnings of information is appended at the terminal of the thesis.
Administration OF THE DISSERTATION
13. It is proposed to analyze the topic in the undermentioned mode: –
( a ) Basic dogmas of the IWT to include Water Distribution and Clauses with Reference to the Western Rivers.
( B ) Projects Undertaken and Planned by Pakistan Government in the Western Rivers.
( degree Celsius ) Environmental Effects on the Indus Basin.
( vitamin D ) Present Flash points Between both the Countries.
( vitamin E ) The Way Ahead.
BASIC TENETS OF THE IWT TO INCLUDE WATER DISTRIBUTION AND CLAUSES WITH REFERENCE TO THE WESTERN RIVERS
Fig 1 Indus River Basin
14. The IWT was conceived and framed in such a manner so as to take into consideration economic and proficient concerns of both the combatants as besides lay down a specific timeframe for passage. Some of the of import facets of the IWT which consists of a Preamble, 12 Articles and 8 Annexure are as under: –
( a ) Pakistan would hold full entree to the Waterss of the Western Rivers, free flow of which would be allowed by India albeit minor exclusions.
( B ) Pakistan would construct three dikes, eight nexus canals, three bombardments, and 2500 tubing Wellss as an immediate demand. The Water and Power Development Authority ( WAPDA ) of Pakistan was given the undertaking of finishing these plants.
( degree Celsius ) There would be a passage period of 10 old ages, from April 1, 1960 to March 31, 1970. Water would be supplied to Pakistan as per a elaborate agenda.
( vitamin D ) India would supply $ 62 million, in 10 one-year installments during the passage period.
( vitamin E ) There would be future exchange of informations every bit good as cooperation.
( degree Fahrenheit ) Permanent Indus Commission ( PIC ) , made up of one Commissioner of Indus Waters from each state was besides set up who would run into yearly with an purpose to further cooperation for amicable reading every bit good as execution of the pact and would subject an one-year study to their several authoritiess before 30 June every twelvemonth.
( g ) A “ impersonal expert ” to be appointed to decide any difference, and if he fails ; so the same would be resolved by reciprocally agreed upon negotiants by each side. In the event of the difference still non acquiring resolved so a Court of Arbitration could be convened. The Court would be composed of seven members, two from both India and Pakistan and three including a Chairman from a panel to be chosen by the two Governments. If no consensus can be arrived at, the IWT has given a list of individuals from whom to take such as the Secretary General of the U.N. or International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ( IBRD ) for the Chairmanship and the President of M.I.T. , Cambridge, the Rector of Imperial College, London, the Chief Justice of the USA, or the Lord Chief Justice of England for panel rank[ 3 ]. In the event of either of the combatants taking up technology plants on any of the feeders, each would hold to inform the other about the same and besides supply informations as required.
15. The IWT allotted about 80 per cent of the entire Indus flows to Pakistan and 20 per cent to India. India was allotted the full flows of the three eastern rivers, the Sutlej, Beas and Ravi, excluding 50,000 estates of bing irrigation utilizations in Pakistan from certain Ravi feeders. Pakistan, on the other manus, was allocated the full flows of the three western rivers, the Chenab, Jhelum and Indus, less some Indian utilizations in its portion of J & A ; K for watering up to 1.34 m estates and making 3.60 million acre pess of storage for hydro-electric coevals and inundation moderateness. These utilizations were capable to lucubrate judicial admissions sing location and utilizations[ 4 ]. This sharing and allocation of the H2O resources of the Indus Water Basin by the World Bank was more in consonant rhyme with the Indian place than that of Pakistan, who had been demanding about all the H2O from the full river system. This was one of the premier grounds for the extraordinarily big clip taken for the dialogues to fructify.
16. As per the footings of the IWT storage capacity for all individual intent and multipurpose reservoirs which may be constructed by India after Effective Date, which is 01 April 1960, should non transcend the figures as given in Table 2.
17. The pact besides mandated India to supply to Pakistan design parametric quantities of any new undertaking in J & A ; K six months prior to the beginning of important plants as besides factor in expostulations if any from Pakistan. Although it is non compulsory to acquire Pakistan ‘s blessing, India has meticulously engaged in audience ensuing in several undertakings being long delayed or virtually shelved ( the Tulbul inundation detainment strategy ) or revised sub-optimally ( as in the instance of Sallal on the Chenab, which silted up within two seasons as a effect ) . The consequence has been cost escalation and delayed benefits[ 5 ].
18. The inside informations of the assorted technology building works in Pakistan as under the IWT are given in Tables 3, 4, 5 and 6[ 6 ].
19. Consequence of IWT on Jammu and Kashmir. This part which is capable of bring forthing close to 20,000MW of hydroelectric power had the capacity to export power. However, The IWT curtailed the rights of Jammu and Kashmir on the upper Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus for intents of even non-consumptive hydroelectric storage and recreations within these basins. The H2O resources could neither be used for irrigation nor for power coevals. It is therefore natural that there is broad dispersed discontent over the Treaty in the State. It is estimated that clauses in the pact cost the province about Rs 6,000/- crores each twelvemonth. The pact limits the provinces right to utilize the Waterss of the Jhelum and the Chenab, in peculiar its ability to construct storage reservoirs on the two river systems. This leads to a loss of possible power coevals of about 15,000MW. Hence even though this part is good endowed with H2O resources, it is marginally irrigated. The pact has negatively affected the growing of Jammu & A ; Kashmir, as H2O resources in the part could non be harnessed[ 7 ].
PROJECTS UNDERTAKEN AND PLANNED BY PAKISTAN GOVERNMENT IN THE WESTERN RIVERS
Fig 2 Dams on the Indus Basin
18. Pakistan is about wholly dependent on the Indus Basin H2O, which amounts to 65 % of H2O flow, to run into its turning agricultural and power demand but ironically it is an inefficient user and director of H2O and has allowed its irrigation substructure to deteriorate, typically depending on neglecting supply side augmentation without due respect to demand direction ensuing in supply deficit which is a job looming big for the state. Sea H2O has moved in every bit much as 54 stat mis into the Indus river estuary in Sindh due to decreased H2O flow in the river.
19. Pakistan has a figure of undertakings, storage sites on the Western Rivers as discussed below but each is plagued with some or the other job be it Tarbela, Chasma, Mangla, Kalabagh, or the Diamer-Basha, Kartaza dike. There have been widespread protests against the proposed dike of Kalabagh at Mianwali, and Basha at Chilas, Gilgit country and the elevation of the Mangla dike in Mirpur. Out of the four states of Pakistan, three viz. Sindh, Balochistan and NWFP are against these dikes. Even the PoK and Balawaristan oppose the dam undertakings of Mangla and Basha[ 8 ]. This is chiefly so because there is deficiency of understanding and misgiving amongst the states as to the correct and rightful usage of available H2O by each other.
20. There is an acute deficit of suited storage sites in Pakistan. Tarbela and Chashma are easy holding less capacity due to siltation. Muzaffarabad is antagonized since the building of the Mangla dike in Mirpur, PoK has dislocated the full metropolis, but it is merely the remainder of the state that has benefited by this project.The tallness of the Mangla dike has late been raised by 40 pess, which will further submerse that territory. Besides if India shops 1.5 MAF on Jhelum which she can as per the pact so the Mangla Dam will non make full up. The decreased H2O flow and siltation in the Indus River System have resulted in decreased power coevals. There is besides a possibility of utilizing the H2O at Tarbela merely for agricultural intents and power coevals would be stopped there since the decreased H2O flow make electricity coevals impracticable at that place.
21. Punjab wants that the Kalabagh dike should be built but Sindh has warned Islamabad against the building of the same. The 4500 MW Diamer-Bhasha undertaking which is on the Indus has been taken up on the NWFP-Gilgit-Baltistan Area boundary line but there is still some clip for the work on the dike to commence. The site is in a rain shadow country and any clime alteration taking to lesser snowfall would ensue in the reservoir make fulling up merely one time in seven to ten old ages during ‘super-floods ‘ . Furthermore, there is experiencing among the people in Northern Areas that Islamabad deliberately has non granted them political position so as to work them over the Indus Waterss because Pakistan would be obliged to portion the Waterss and the royalty for the same if it grants them political position. It is besides felt by some that Basha dike will submerse parts of its land ensuing in supplanting and NWFP would profit from the royalties[ 9 ]. The Katzara dike which is downstream of Skardu is besides confronting strong resistance from the people in the part as besides the military since it could submerge the full Skardu vale and much of Balti civilisation.
22. Pakistan with Chinese aid is be aftering a hydro-electric power undertaking on the Jhelum River – the Neelum-Jhelum hyrdro-electric power undertaking. It is a 969 MW Neelum-Jhelum hydro-cum-1.3 hundred thousand acre irrigation undertaking[ 10 ].
23. The dike, bombardments and canals which have been built upriver have resulted in H2O scarceness in the Indus at the estuaries of the Arabian Sea. This has resulted in the sea to travel inland and increase the salt in 1.2 Million estates of farming areas. Over the
old ages the discharge of fresh water from the Indus into the Arabian Sea has declined steadily from 85 MAF in the 1940s to about 10 MAF in the 90s and likely less today[ 11 ].
24. Pakistan is besides beef uping its defense mechanisms against India by constructing defense mechanism oriented canals at locations all along the boundary line therefore ensuing in a figure of nexus canals that it has built to feed these ‘defence canals ‘ .
ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS ON THE INDUS BASIN
25. Environmental alteration and planetary heating is likely to hold damaging impact on the IWT. The common Indus Waterss, in a manner, forces both the neighbors to come to a common speaking land. However with the of all time increasing population and increased demands in H2O in both the provinces with scarceness of the same due to environmental factors non envisaged in the yesteryear ; the state of affairs could good go really volatile. India and Pakistan both sing entree to H2O as a affair of national importance.
26. Owing to planetary heating, the glaciers are shriveling really fast taking to reduced flow of H2O in the Indus River system, more so in the Indus, since it depends on glacial overflows for 90 % of its Waterss. Harmonizing to a survey led by glaciologist Shakil Ramsoo, helper professor in the section of geology at the University of Kashmir, the Kolahoi glacier, which is the biggest glacier in that country and besides the chief beginning of H2O for the Jhelum and its many watercourses and lakes, has shrunk by 18 per centum over three old ages while other glaciers in the part have besides shrunk by 16 per centum. The Siachen has besides melted to half its earlier size[ 12 ]. This has resulted in reduced H2O flow in the Indus Basin since bulk of the H2O in the Indus comes from these glaciers which are fast fadeout. This is traveling to adversely impact the H2O supply to both Pakistan and India as besides consequence H2O security. Harmonizing to a recent United Nations study, Pakistan ‘s H2O supply has dropped from about 5,000 three-dimensional metres per individual in the 1950s to 1,420 three-dimensional metres today-which is a affair of grave concern since it could get down set uping the economic development of the province and besides go a serious wellness jeopardy.
27. Besides, these rivers have a really high deposit or siltation content taking to the rivers altering their class often as besides doing heavy siltation of the dikes and other storage countries. This is farther acquiring aggravated by the alteration in clime. The three largest dikes in Pakistan, Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma have already lost ~ 25 % of their capacity due to silting. This is a serious job in a state which depends on river irrigation, instead than the monsoon rains, for 74 % of its sum cultivated land. Such jobs exacerbate the already hapless output of the harvests[ 13 ].
28. The inordinate building of dikes and storages on the Indus Basin Rivers to run into the of all time increasing demands coupled with the of all time cut downing flow of H2O in these
rivers has resulted in the Arabian Sea to travel inland therefore increasing the salt in 1.2 Million estates of farming areas. The discharge of fresh water from the Indus into the Arabian Sea has declined steadily from 85 MAF in the 1940s to about 10 MAF in the 90s and likely less today[ 14 ].
29. Owing to the environmental alterations, there has been a rise in temperature and proportionate lessening in precipitation and humidness. This is farther worsening the downstream flow in the Indus Basin[ 15 ].The deficiency of H2O is coercing people to abandon their small towns and move to other topographic points for their support.
30. The IWT when it was envisaged and signed in 1960 had a different set of environmental parametric quantities and they were taken into consideration along with certain likely hereafter impacts but the rapid gait of industrialisation and emanation of Green House Gases in the last 60 old ages have had far more damaging impacts taking to inauspicious impacts on the environment non envisaged earlier.
Present FLASHPOINTS BETWEEN BOTH THE COUNTRIES
30. In the recent old ages at that place have been a figure of undertakings on which both India and Pakistan are holding widely divergent positions and these have led to stretching of the Indus Water Treaty about to its seams. These undertakings have been modified or are being extraordinarily delayed due to expostulations being raised settled and this barbarous rhythm being repeated more than one time ; this being a spin off from the trust shortage that is bing between both the states and the ordinary citizen on both sides of the boundary line enduring the most. Major flash points are enumerated in the subsequent paragraphs.
31. The Tulbul Navigation Lock/Wullar Barrage Issue.
( a ) The Walur Lake which is located on the Jhelum River in Jammu and Kashmir becomes non-navigable between Sopore and Baramulla, a strch of 22 Km, during the winters. Hence, with an purpose to better the pilotage installations, India started the building of a bombardment 439 pess long with a lock at the oral cavity of the lake to raise the flow of H2O in winter to 4000 cusecs with a deepness of 4 foot with an added storage of 0.3 MAF. Pakistan objected to this undertaking and building was halted in 1987. Pakistan ‘s expostulations are chiefly because of two issues, foremost, there is a demand of India to acquire Pakistan ‘s concurrency of the design ; secondly, India can non hive away Waterss as per IWT on the Jhelum Main anything in surplus of 0.01 MAF as “ incidental storage work ” . Notwithstanding the same, the existent ground for Pakistan ‘s expostulations are more out of strategic and military frights and insecurity that this system could be used against them as a arm or a beginning of purchase by India.
( B ) India, on the other manus, maintains that the bombardment would be good to Pakistan since it would modulate the flow of H2O to their Mangla Dam as it would command the inundations and besides better their Triple – canal irrigation system of associating Jhelum and Chenab with the Upper Bari Doab Canal. The H2O flow would so duplicate during the thin winter period from the current 2000 cusecs. Besides, the H2O is being stored in the already bing Wullar lake and is merely for non-consumptive usage ( this term includes such usage as pilotage, drifting of lumber, inundation protection or control, and angling with no decline in volume of H2O returned to the river/tributaries after usage ) which is allowed by the IWT[ 16 ]. The Wullar bombardment is a undertaking which controls the flow of H2O and is therefore permitted as per the IWT.
( degree Celsius ) The two states agreed on a the undertaking in Oct 1991, but in February, 1992 Pakistan linked the expiration of Kishenganga Hydroelectric undertaking with the farther advancement on the Tulbul Navigation Lock undertaking. India refused the same and work has been stalled since so.
32. The Kishenganga Project.
Fig 3 Diversion of River Kishenganga to Wular Lake
( a ) India had started the 330 MW Kishenganga hydroelectric undertaking across River Kishenganga. It consisted of a 103 meter dike on the river before it crosses the Line of Control ( LoC ) and a channel and a 27 Km long tunnel through the North Kashmir ranges to convey the H2O to the Wullar lake where a hydroelectric power station will be built as portion of an integrated undertaking[ 17 ].
( B ) Pakistan fears that this undertaking would hold a negative impact on their 969-MW Neelum- Jhelum power works which is yet to constructed. Although it was envisaged for 1994-1997 but due to dearth of financess this had been lying dormant. Pakistan feels that due to the Indian undertaking the capacity of their undertaking is traveling to cut down due to decreased H2O flow and wants to get down its undertaking foremost in order to deny Waterss to India claiming the rule of “ anterior appropriation ” , which states “ where a Plant is located on a Tributary of The Jhelum on which Pakistan has any Agricultural usage or hydroelectric usage, the H2O released below the Plant may be delivered, if necessary, into another Tributary but merely to the extent bing Agricultural Use or hydroelectric usage by Pakistan on the former Tributary would non be adversely affected ”[ 18 ]. India has said that although the H2O is being routed to the Jhelum, it is still making Pakistan albeit non through Kishenganga ( Neelum ) .
33. The Baglihar Project.
( a ) This undertaking by the Jammu & A ; Kashmir Power Development Corporation on the Chenab in Doda Distt would be bring forthing 450 MW of power and in 2002 it was decided that the capacity by December 2007 should be 900 MW. However, it was merely in October 2008 that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh visited Jammu and Kashmir and inaugurated the undertaking.
( B ) Pakistan frights that non merely would this consequence in their loss of H2O, India would besides be able to command H2O flow in such a mode so as Ro affect flow of H2O in their canals as besides cause inundations or flood in the Bajwat Area above the Marala headwork by sudden synchronized releases from Dulhasti, Baglihar and Salal reservoirs on Chenab. Pakistan blames India for non allowing the Permanent Indus Commission members of Pakistan from sing the dike site for four old ages after holding been officially informed of the undertaking in 1998 though the same was due to the mobilisation during Parakram. Pakistan requested the World Bank to name a impersonal expert under Article 9 ( 2 ) ( A ) of the IWT, following which Prof Raymond Laffitte, a professor at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne was appointed the NE by the World Bank after confer withing the two counties as provided under the IWT[ 19 ]. He nevertheless gave the spell in front for the undertaking for India with minor alterations therefore hiting a major moral triumph for India.
( degree Celsius ) Pakistan, harmonizing to a study in New Scientist, has identified four chief variables that affect it and its frights and expostulations are chiefly based on these. First, the ecological impact and poorness that the building of this dike would hold in Pakistan. Second, the effects that the dike would hold on agribusiness – harmonizing the CIA World Fact book 21.6 % of Pakistan ‘s GDP is agricultural and 42 % of its labour force is engaged in agribusiness. Third, the production and ingestion of energy. Fourthly, the menace that the dike could besides be used as a arm by India[ 20 ].
34. Embankment on Ravi. Pakistan has claimed that India has built a 15-Km long embankment ( besides known as River Training Works, RTWs ) on river Ravi in the Narowal sector in 2002, in forepart of Kot Naina, a small town in Shakargarh Distt. Pakistan claims that such a building “ so near to the international boundary line ” is violative of both the IWT and the Border Ground Rules, 1961 and has caused deluging on its side. Pakistan had besides decided to construct a similar embankment on its side by 2002[ 21 ].
THE WAY AHEAD
35. The repeal of the IWT is non in the best involvements of both India and Pakistan. It is therefore incumbent that both India and Pakistan evolve a solution that is both long lasting and good to both the states. It may be pertinent to observe that one of the chief grounds for Pakistan ‘s involvement in the Kashmir part is the rivers that emanate every bit good as flow through the province and non merely the support that it is supplying for cessation/’self finding ‘ . Although, Baglihar and Kishenganga seemingly appear to be the chief flash points but other internal, bilateral and many-sided grounds are besides seting the IWT under strain. It is but natural that in future the IWT is traveling to be under more emphasis. It is therefore really of import that both India and Pakistan mature to understand the same and act in a more responsible mode looking in front of their national and regional prisms. There is a demand of looking in front to a new understanding or modifying the present understanding to forestall any H2O wars – internal and bilateral, and besides to better H2O administration[ 22 ]. Hence, there is a demand of an Indus-II, in order to optimise overall benefits.
36. Over the ages at that place have been assorted expression that has been put frontward or propagated by both the provinces. Pakistan has been the strongest advocate of the ‘Chenab Formula ‘ based on the ‘Dixon Plan ‘ which states that the division of the Jammu and Kashmir province should be along the flow of the Chenab.This would connote that India would hold to portion with certain parts of Jammu as good, presenting a security menace for India. Besides, the catchment countries of rivers of import to Pakistan would come under Pakistan ‘s legal power. Further India would besides hold to portion with the strategically of import part of Akhnoor, the merely all conditions critical nexus available to India. Moreso, it would besides non auger good for the parts of Jammu that would go on to remain with India, that is, the territories of Jammu, Kathua, Kargil and parts of Udhampur. Hence, both from the military point of position as besides from the over all state of affairs that would develop station such an understanding it would be a strong negative from India. Therefore, this option benefits merely Pakistan but has damaging effects both on the security of India as besides on the people of Lammu and Kashmir.
37. The other expression that some experts in Pakistan have been propagating is that the Valley of Kashmir should be handed over to Pakistan and this should be the footing of the division of the province. This would be even more ruinous if non more than the Chenab expression, more so for Pakistan.This is so because in the instance of belligerencies or if of all time due to immaterial fortunes it is decided by India to barricade the Chenab so this would ensue in Pakistan losing a major feeder of the Indus.Pakistan would so be left with merely Jhelum as the chief feeder of Indus and it would be in all possibility that the Indus would dry up even before making the Arabian sea.This would adversely impact Sindh and would hold lay waste toing consequence on the agribusiness in the region.This would fuel the already strained relationship between Punjab
and Sindh as both would so be competing for the H2O of the Indus with Punjab seeking to capture the bulk of the waterflow for its ain use.This would coerce Pakistan to redraw and reorient its canal and irrigation system and layout, something which it can ill afford.This expression is destructive non merely for Pakistan but besides for India.
38. It is therefore seen that a sustainable and long permanent expression can merely be forthcoming merely if it is a win-win state of affairs for both the states. This can merely be achieved by an integrated development attack for the preservation of the Indus basin and its optimal use. This would imply scene of both short and long term ends ; hold a well chartered joint direction programme, stable support and proper mechanisms specifying ownership of resources.
39. One of the agencies to make the same is by joint geographic expedition, probe, design, building and direction of farther strategies and operationalising optimised basin programs in the upper Chenab, Jhelum and Indus on both sides of the LOC. This could widen to watershed direction, informations mapping – by developing machine-controlled platforms interrogated by orbiters to supervise glacial thaw, debris dikes, glacial lake jeopardies and seismological events – wood and alpine scope direction, and transmittal lines to evacuate power. Access for each to the other side of the LOC would conform to the Manmohan Singh-Musharraf preparation of doing the boundary ( read the LOC ) irrelevant, a mere line on the map or a soft boundary line, and developing joint mechanisms to pull off the resulting homo, economic, cultural and political interactions and inter-relationships.
40. The thought of a Siachen Peace Park as an international scientific research base, stretching from West of the Karakoram Pass to K2, could be factored into this construct. Cooperation with China, the upper riparian in Tibet, would besides be desirable for intents of informations exchange and catastrophe direction, particularly in position of runing permafrost and glacial ice in Tibet[ 23 ].
41. Alternatively, IWT II could be addressed to develop the full potency of the Indus system in footings of storage, inundation padding and hydro power through incorporate basin development and direction. This could be done by allowing India to construct storage on upper Indus, Jhelum and Chenab and both states could utilize the Waterss jointly[ 24 ].This would guarantee that the excess H2O of the Indus rivers of upto 38 maf which was being wasted into the sea yearly would be productively used and would therefore be reciprocally good to both the states. Pakistan would profit as it would optimise H2O that would be used for agricultural usage as besides reap other allied benefits. India, on the other manus, would profit from electricity generated from these dikes built on the Western Rivers which she can non as of now due to the IWT I. A proposal to this consequence was foremost mooted by an Indian delegate in an International Conference on the Project “ Water and Security in South Asia ( WASSA ) ” held at Islamabad on 24 to 26 February 2003.
42. It is but ironical that Pakistan is disbelieving about the IWT II as proposed by the Indian delegate and feel that it is an effort by India to do Pakistan weak socio-economically, make intra-regional competition within Pakistan stemming out of sharing of scarce H2O resources as besides continue to dispatch the excess river H2O to the sea unused to warrant IWT II. Pakistan ‘s frights stem from the baseless fact that the IWT II would be of lone fringy benefit to them and they would besides free control of the Western Rivers, besides they would be at the clemency of India since the control of storage and release would be with India.
39. Water is an absolute necessity to optimally use the full potency of the agricultural sector as besides the state ‘s development. Judicious development and efficient usage of H2O resources is therefore of great importance and significance. It is so a basic demand for all and therefore a really of import and cherished national plus. Post divider, this fact was farther reiterated by the demand that arose for a pact to portion the Waterss of the Indus Water Basin. Even before the IWT was born ; there were ‘arrangements ‘ and ‘agreements ‘ such as The Inter-Dominion ( Delhi ) Agreement signed on 04 May 1948 which were steering the H2O distribution procedure even during the most seeking times of divider and station it. It may be assumed that the divergent positions that both the combatants were showing could merely be so due to the adulthood being shown by both states on the so bing understandings even though there were certain minor issues such as non payment by Pakistan. Had any mishap been shown by manner of halting or deviating H2O resources both states would hold been on the threshold of another war. Water was kept separate from the other combative issues and this is what allowed the dialogues to be continued for such a long clip even though there was tenseness over other subjects. Water jobs were viewed as “ functional ” instead than “ political ” .
40. Water-sharing from common international rivers is nil new. Harmonizing to a UN study, out of 200 international rivers, 70 per cent of them are being shared by two states. There are about 1228 H2O sharing treaties/agreements that had been concluded worldwide over the last 50 old ages[ 25 ].
41. Government policies and determinations both in India and Pakistan are to a great extent influenced by public feelings and out of irresistible impulses of political endurance. With the history that is shared by both the neighbors, it is non unnatural to see the manner that events have unfolded in the past and is still traveling on. Common misgiving and deficiency of religion has contributed to where things stand now. It is non that differences had non occurred in the yesteryear ; they have been solved, the Salal Hydroelectric Project on the Chenab River in Jammu and Kashmir in which H2O is given to Pakistan in regulated mode with no recreations being created by India is a authoritative illustration how the dialogues took topographic point from 1974 to 1978 between the foreign offices and Indus Commissioners of both the states and it has non been disputed of all time since. However, it is once more due to common misgiving that Pakistan is non allowing India to transport out anti-siltation work doing loss of energy to
the melody of about 50 % to the province. Assorted mechanisms had been put in topographic point to guarantee that the IWT be implemented amicably and it has stood the trial of clip for the last half a century.
42. The IWT when it was signed did best justness to what could be done and catered for the hereafter with it being unfastened to alterations. The variables that affect this pact have changed drastically over the past – population has increased exponentially in the bomber continent which has led to increase in demand for H2O and addition in agricultural demands. Coupled with it is the impact of the environment with the glaciers withdrawing and the H2O flows dwindling and lowering of the H2O tabular array. Water direction in the subcontinent being as it is of really low criterions taking to wastage of the already meagre resources. The already sedate state of affairs is farther deteriorated by the misgiving that is shared by both the states. With no Lashkar-e-Taiba up in the above negative factors set uping IWT, India and Pakistan have to co-exist and it is up to both the provinces how it would wish to make so: the same manner as in the last 60 old ages or in a peaceable harmonious manner that is good to both the states. The contours of extremism and fanatism has reached much higher degrees than in the yesteryear, hence hereafter dealingss if they are non affable would hold far unsafe branchings than those in the yesteryear. It would be prudent to province that both states have come a long manner since independency and should get down germinating ain solutions to the jobs instead than depending on the western universe to supply with the same.
43. Any future understanding would besides hold to take into history the positions and demands of the province of Jammu and Kashmir every bit good. There have been a batch of disadvantages that the province has faced in the IWT which has resulted in it non merely fring out economically but besides more significantly in developmental facets. Stairss have already been initiated by the province authorities by engaging experts to take stock of the losingss and take suited disciplinary stairss to minimise the same.
44. It has besides to be understood that either of the combatants have to suggest alterations to the IWT which are in maintaining with each others ‘ sensitivenesss and such proposals which would probably be rejected by the other at the beginning should be avoided to let any meaningful duologue or treatment to travel frontward. Particularly, the Chenab expression or the Vale of Kashmir expression by Pakistan would ne’er be agreed to by India and it would be naA?ve to believe that the Pakistani constitution is non cognizant of the same when these proposals were made. Any effort to conflict declaration has to be more full-blown and believable from both the Indian and Pakistani side. To this consequence the Integrated Development attack to the Indus Basin as besides developing the full country as an ecological and scientific park are plausible avenues. This would profit non merely India and Pakistan but besides other interest holders of H2O in the part such as China which is an upper riparian province to India and Bangladesh.
45. The lone solution is to eschew all apprehensivenesss, understand the complexness of the Indus Basin and travel in front maintaining the changed scenarios both intrinsic and extrinsic to both the states so that it is good to both.