Inflation slowed in response to past pecuniary tightening and growing slowing in 2011-12. Growth during 2012-13 is expected to remain below tendency at around the same degree as in the old twelvemonth. Inflation is likely to stay gluey around 7 per cent with upside hazards emanating from a lacking monsoon. Concurrently, the hazard of twin shortages has accentuated doing concern for macro-financial stableness. With limited financial and pecuniary infinite available to supply direct stimulation to growing without stoking rising prices, an outgo exchanging scheme is needed that reduces authorities ‘s gross disbursement by cutting subsidies with a measure up in capital outgo to crowd-in private investing. Over the medium-term, turn toing issues hindering substructure investing have become of import for stepping up India ‘s growing potency, which has been dented, post-crisis. While the Reserve Bank is concentrating on monetary value stableness and sustainable growing over the medium-term maintaining in position its public assistance deductions, the human face of its fiscal policy can be buttressed with a greater push on effectual fiscal inclusion. The fiscal system of the state remains robust, though hazards to stableness have increased since the publication of the last Financial Stability Report ( FSR ) in December 2011. The combined consequence of the blue planetary macroeconomic state of affairs and the hushed economic public presentation on the domestic forepart has caused fringy addition in hazards to stableness. The fiscal sector stakeholders, nevertheless, continued to repose assurance in the stableness of the domestic fiscal system, as revealed by the findings of Reserve Bank ‘s 2nd Systemic Risk Survey, though there has been some decrease in the degree of assurance. Menaces to stableness are posed by the planetary autonomous debt job and hazard antipathy, domestic financial place, widening current history shortage and structural facets of nutrient rising prices. Falling international petroleum oil monetary values and a normal monsoon could, nevertheless, be positives for the domestic economic system, traveling frontward. The foreign exchange and equity markets witnessed high degrees of volatility while investor assurance and sentiments ran low. Indian Bankss ‘ soundness indexs remained robust, although the force per unit areas on plus quality persisted. Give a slowing sedimentation growing, Bankss ‘ trust on borrowed financess, particularly short term financess increased. The state ‘s fiscal market substructure functioned without break. But, possible exposures such as colony slowdown in the Real Time Gross Settlement ( RTGS ) System and big uncollateralized intra-day exposures assumed by the Clearing Corporation of India Limited ( CCIL ) on its designated colony Bankss need to be addressed. The consequences of a series of stress trials to analyze the impact of inauspicious macro-financial dazes showed that the banking system remained resilient even under utmost emphasis scenarios.
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
Growth decelerated in 2011-12 after two old ages of comparatively good public presentation and dropped to below the economic system ‘s possible. The bead in growing was a consequence of combination of domestic and planetary factors. Global macroeconomic and fiscal uncertainness, weak external demand, elevated degree of monetary values, widening twin shortages and falling investing combined to adversely impact growing. The investing clime worsened due to structural hindrances, policy uncertainness, rising prices continuity and lifting involvement rates. Two old ages of high rising prices amidst broad financial and current history shortages would hold had inauspicious effect for public assistance. It adversely affected salvaging and investing, peculiarly family economy in fiscal assets. Inflation changes the hereafter ingestion basket by cut downing the existent value of the sum saved today, therefore doing current ingestion more attractive. Real value of rescuers ‘ retentions of hard currency every bit good as fixed income merchandises diminutions. Sing all these inauspicious state of affairs of economic system, does Indian economic system hold good chance for the following twelvemonth
Significance OF THE STUDY
In 2011-12, growing decelerated in each consecutive one-fourth. On the other manus, mean rising prices remained high, though it moderated in the last four months of the twelvemonth. After entering a rise of 8.4 per cent during 2009-10 and 2010-11, growing dropped to 6.5 per cent in 2011-12. Growth in Q4 of 2011-12 of 5.3 per cent was the lowest in 29 quarters. Early indicants are that activity degrees continued to be slow during Q1 of 2012-13, with industrial growing stagnating, slack persisting in investing activity and ingestion decelerating. The Reserve Bank had bit by bit tightened pecuniary policy over last two old ages through 13 policy rate hikings that began in March 2010 and continued till October 2011, raising operational policy rates by 525 footing points ( bits per second ) from 3.25 to 8.5 per cent. It besides hiked the Cash Reserve Ratio ( CRR ) twice, increasing it by 100 bits per second from 5 to 6 per cent of NDTL. After an impressive period of financial consolidation during 2002-03 to 2007-08, there has been a pronounced impairment in the financial place. The gross financial shortage ( GFD ) /GDP ratio that dropped from 5.9 per cent in 2002-03 to 2.5 per cent in 2007-08 is back at about the same degree. The betterment in gross and primary shortages has been more than reversed. India ‘s financial shortage has widened both structurally and cyclically. On the external forepart, the CAD on the balance of payment side has averaged about 3.0 per cent during 2008- 09 to 2011-12 after a fringy excess on current history on an mean footing during 2002-03 to 2007-08. After measuring the economic state of affairs of financial twelvemonth 2011-2012, what prospect Indian Economy holds for the financial twelvemonth 2012-2013.
Purpose OF THE STUDY
To understand and analyse the Indian economic system chance for the Fiscal Year 2012-2013 given the inauspicious economic state of affairs of the Fiscal Year 2011-2012. Given the amid rising prices and high involvement rate, does Indian economic system hold good chance for the financial twelvemonth 2012-2013.
In this chapter, the method of informations aggregation and analysis is discussed. The assorted stairss, which the survey follows to work out the inquiries at manus, is discussed.
Worsen economic state of affairs of past financial twelvemonth would non hold statistical impact on Economic Prospect 2012-2013.
Economic state of affairs of financial twelvemonth 2010-2012 would non hold important impact on economic chance of financial twelvemonth 2012-2013
Method of informations aggregation
The information needed for this thesis work was collected through the usage of secondary beginnings. Metric information has been collected of past 5 old ages from assorted authorities authorized and controlled sites to command the genuineness of the informations.
The secondary informations used in the present survey is panel or pooled in nature and collected from Reserve Bank of India from “ Statisticss of Indian Economy ” for the period 2007/08 to 2011/12.
Multi Regression analysis – Is used to analyse the proportion of fluctuation in dependent variable due to add-on or remotion of one or more variable. Arrested development analysis helps to understand the impact of fluctuation in independent variable on one or more dependent variable.
Chi-Square Test – To understand the correlativity between the independent variable and dependent variable and to look into the goodness of fit trial that would assist to understand, does the theoretical account is good to explicate the fluctuation in dependant caused by independent variable.
Factor Analysis – To cut down the independent variable by pull outing the important variable those are negatively correlated with each other and extremely correlated with dependent variable.
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF RESEARCH
Conceptual theoretical account is get downing point and footing for implementing surveies and researches so that it is specified coveted parametric quantities of the research and their relationship.
Sweeping Price Index ( WPI )
Global Domestic Fuel Price ‘
Cash Reserve Ratio
Crude oil import
Foreign Investment Inflows ( FII )
Foreign Exchange Ratio
Market Capitalization at BSE
Balance of Payment
Gross Domestic Product ( GDP )
Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ) – Is the market value of all officially recognized concluding goods and services produced within a state in a given period of clip.
Sweeping Price Index ( WPI ) – is the monetary value of a representative basket of sweeping goods. It is used as measurement tool of rising prices.
Agricultural Production – Is measured as the ratio of agricultural end products to agricultural inputs. utput is normally measured as the market value of concluding end product, which excludes intermediate merchandises such as maize provender used in the meat industry.
Industrial Production – Is a step of end product of the industrial sector of the economic system. The industrial sector includes fabrication, excavation, and public-service corporations. Industrial Production an of import tool for calculating future GDP and economic public presentation.
Interest Rate- Is the rate at which involvement is paid by borrowers for the usage of money that they borrow from a loaner.
Cash Reserve Ratio – Is the sum of financess that the Bankss have to maintain with the RBI. If the cardinal bank decides to increase the CRR, the available sum with the Bankss comes down. The RBI uses the CRR to run out out inordinate money from the system.
Repo Rate – The rate at which theA RBIA lends money to commercial Bankss is called repo rate. It is an instrument of pecuniary policy. Whenever Bankss have any deficit of financess they can borrow from the RBI.A
Coal Imports – Increasing dependance on imported coal and lifting planetary monetary values of the dry fuel can impact growing and rising prices.
Crude Oil Imports – Oil imports increases the balance of payment and cut down the assurance of Investor.
Foreign Investment Inflow – Is direct investing into production or concern in a state by a company in another state, either by purchasing a company in the mark state or by spread outing operations of an bing concern in that state
Foreign Exchange Rate – The exchange of one currency for another, or the transition of one currency into another currency. Foreign exchange besides refers to the planetary market where currencies are traded virtually around-the-clock. The term foreign exchange is normally abbreviated as “ forex ” and on occasion as “ FX.
Market Capitalization – The entire dollar market value of all of a company ‘s outstanding portions. Market capitalisation is calculated by multiplying a company ‘s portions outstanding by the current market monetary value of one portion.
Balance of Payment – BOPA compares the dollar difference of the sum of exports and imports, including all fiscal exports and imports. A negative balance of payments means that more money is fluxing out of the state than coming in, and frailty versa.
Cash Reserve Ratio
Crude Oil Import ( Million Tonnes )
India Foreign Trade ( Rupees Billion )
Gross Fiscal Deficit ( Billion Rupees )
FII ( Rupees Billion )
Foreign Exchange Ratio ( Rupees Billion )
Market Capitlization at BSE ( Rupees Billion )
BOP ( Rupees Billion )
Interest Rate on Central Govt. Securities ( % )
1. Growth Outlook for 2012-13
The growing mentality for 2012-13 remains weak as combination of planetary and domestic macro- economic factors that slowed down growing in the predating twelvemonth have persisted and show no marks of acquiring resolved. Globally, the crowned head and bank debt overhang is still maintaining the fiscal markets under emphasis. The planetary trade mentality has deteriorated as growing in emerging markets is decelerating down in add-on to recession taking roots in euro country and US besides headed for a slower growing.
On the domestic forepart, macro-economic conditions are improbable to better in close term as a enchantment of policy stasis, structural and cyclical jobs have combined to decelerate down the economic system. Growth is decelerating down, while rising prices remains gluey at above comfort degrees. However, the Government in August 2012, promised to take several stairss to turn to the macro-economic failing. These would include, the return to way of financial consolidation, conveying in a clear and stable revenue enhancement government, promote salvaging and investing, including foreign investings and work towards bring forthing supply-side responses to take down rising prices. Key determinations to set financial consolidation back on path such as hikings in administered fuel monetary values, cut downing of other subsidies and debut of Goods and Service Tax ( GST ) have been delayed and there is urgency to rapidly travel on the indicated lines to debar farther deepening of jobs.
Growth during the twelvemonth is likely to remain below potency for the 2nd back-to-back twelvemonth. The Reserve Bank in its First Quarter Review of Monetary Policy on July 31, 2012, revised downwards its growing projection for 2012-13 to 6.5 per cent from 7.3 per cent. The downward alteration chiefly reflects drought impact on agricultural end product and contraction in IIP during Q1 of 2012-13. Given the greater integrating of the Indian economic system with planetary economic system, slowing planetary growing and trade volumes will adversely impact India ‘s industry and services sector growing. In add-on, the lagged impact of weak industrial growing is likely to weigh on services sector growing.
2. Inflation Outlook for 2012-13
The rising prices mentality for 2012-13 remains better than the old twelvemonth, though the rising prices flight could stay gluey. Headline rising prices averaged 7.3 per cent during April-July 2012, lower than the 8.9 per cent norm for 2011-12. After dropping reasonably in December 2011, headline rising prices has neither risen nor fallen farther in a perceptible mode. The Reserve Bank ‘s placeholder for nucleus rising prices, non-food fabrication rising prices, averaged 7.8 per cent in the first three quarters of 2011-12 but dropped perceptibly to 5.9 per cent in the last one-fourth. It has now dropped farther and averaged 5.0 per cent in Q1 of 2012-13, though it showed some uptick in July 2012 and remained above its decennary norm in the 2000s. While continuity of rising prices is still worrisome, some alleviation has been provided by the diminution in the recent period.
The Reserve Bank, in its First Quarter Review of Monetary Policy on July 31, 2012, revised upwards its baseline projection for headline rising prices in March 2013 to 7.0 per cent from 6.5 per cent factorization in the upside hazards to rising prices. Earlier projection was based on the premise of normal monsoon that has non materialized. Besides, the moderateness in non-food manufactured merchandise rising prices has non been commensurate with moderateness in growing. Continuity of rising prices, even as growing is decelerating, has emerged as a major policy challenge.
3. Agriculture Growth Moderates on High Base
Agricultural sector grew around tendency degree during 2011-12 on top of a good public presentation in 2010-11. The south-west monsoon in 2011 was normal, but the north-east monsoon was deficient by 48 per cent. Nevertheless, the tendency degree growing in agribusiness was maintained. As per the Fourth Advance Estimates for 2011-12, production of nutrient grains in general and rice and wheat in peculiar, is estimated to be the highest of all time.
Even as the dependance of Indian agribusiness on rainfall has reduced over the old ages, it remains preponderantly rain-fed. About 16 per cent of the state ‘s geographical country is drought prone. This is largely in the waterless, semi-arid and sub-humid countries. Rain-fed agribusiness histories for around 56 per cent of the sum cropped country, with 77 per cent of pulsations, 66 per cent of oil-rich seeds and 45 per cent of cereals grown under rain-fed conditions. The dependance of agribusiness on rainfall is manifested by diminution in kharif end product in 2008-09 and 2009-10, when the south-west monsoon was acutely lacking.
4. Industrial growing moderates amidst deteriorating investing clime, softer demand
Industrial growing, as measured by the index of industrial production ( IIP ) , decelerated to 2.9 per cent during 2011-12 from 8.2 per cent in the old twelvemonth. While the IIP maintained a moderate growing of 5.1 per cent during the first half of 2011-12, growing took a dip in the 2nd half to 0.9 per cent. The lag was on history of moderateness in demand, both domestic and external, hardening of involvement rates, lag in ingestion outgo, particularly in interest-rate sensitive trade goods, subdued concern assurance and planetary economic uncertainness.
The lag in industrial production was reflected across all sub-sectors in 2011-12, except electricity. In the fabrication sub-sector, while 6 industry groups showed a diminution in production, 6 registered growing in surplus of 10.0 per cent. The excavation sub-sector declined by 2.0 per cent during 2011-12. This was chiefly due to regulative and environmental issues impacting coal excavation and low end product of natural gas from the Krishna-Godavari basin. However, electricity sector performed better during 2011-12 entering 8.2 per cent growing supported by higher hydro power coevals aided by a normal south-west monsoon.
6. Moderation evident in services sector growing
Much of India ‘s growing public presentation in the recent old ages has been contributed by the services sector, which showed considerable resiliency during the planetary economic crisis. However, some slowing is evident in services sector late with growing decelerating down to 8.5 per cent during 2011-12 compared to 9.2 per cent in the old twelvemonth. The lag was chiefly on history of slowing in building, which grew by 5.3 per cent, compared with 8.0 per cent in the old twelvemonth. The slowing in services sector is on history of both weakening demand every bit good as inter-linkages with the industrial sector.
In 2001-12, ‘trade, hotels, conveyance and communicating ‘ besides slowed given its strong linkage with industrial activity. Slowdown in transit is besides mirrored in slowing in production of commercial motor vehicles. Telecom industry slowed down along with moderateness in the figure of new cell phone connexions, reflecting in portion infliction of regulative punishments and in portion plateauing of incursion degrees after a period of extra-ordinary growing. The mentality for the services sector depends to a big extent on the resurgence of industrial growing given the dependance of sub-sectors such as trade and conveyance on industrial production. Prospects of the sector besides depend on the developments in the planetary economic state of affairs. Continued breakability in economic conditions in the advanced economic systems may hold inauspicious impact on Indian services exports.
7. Exchange rate motions impacted the rising prices flight
Apart from tendencies in trade good monetary values, exchange rate motions besides impacted the overall rising prices way. The pass-through of depreciation of the rupee since August 2011 has frequently either amplified or dampened the impact of trade good monetary values, depending on the way and magnitude of trade good monetary value alterations. Empirical estimations in the Indian instance indicate that the pass-through has declined over clip. However, given the magnitude of depreciation of the rupee since August 2011, the exchange rate became a beginning of force per unit area on rising prices.
8. Housing monetary values remain steadfast
Despite the hardening of mortgage rates, lodging monetary values continue to stay steadfast at the ggregate national degree. The Reserve Bank ‘s House Price Index ( HPI ) , based on residential belongings monetary values for nine metropoliss collected from the enrollment governments of the several province authoritiess, increased during 2011-12 ( mean of four quarters ) at all-India degree and besides in all the constitutional metropoliss, excluding Chennai. Although House Transactions Volume Index declined during 2011- 12 ( norm of four quarters ) at all-India degree, important acceleration is witnessed in instance of Lucknow, Kolkata, Chennai, Jaipur and Kanpur.
9. India ‘s foreign exchange militias contract
The degree of militias moderated during 2011-12 as there was heavy drawdown in the 2nd half of 2011-12. The ratio of foreign exchange militias to debt besides declined. Nonetheless, in footings of adequateness of militias, India continues to be in comfort zone traveling by the assorted alternate norms. In footings of traditional indexs, reserve screen for imports at 7.1 months against the regulation of pollex of 3 month imports is comfy. Likewise, the degree of militias to short-run debt at 377 per cent is much more than the degree of 100 per cent as prescribed under the Greenspan-Guidotti regulation. In its April 2012 Staff Report, the IMF noted that India ‘s modesty coverage is equal ( 1.8 times of the 2011 gross external funding demand ) and external debt, which has remained at approximately 20 per cent of GDP and compares good with other major emerging markets.
10. Monetary Policy Operation in India
Monetary policy in 2011-12 had to turn to the hazard of intrenchment of rising prices force per unit areas and brainsick rising prices outlooks during the first half of the fiscal twelvemonth and the important lag in domestic growing even while keeping its anti-inflationary stance during the 2nd half. Further, with the liquidness shortage staying above the comfort degree due to a mix of structural and frictional factors, the Reserve Bank had to set about active liquidness direction to shoot lasting primary liquidness. Therefore in the germinating growth-inflation kineticss, the pecuniary policy stance continued to be tight, up to mid-December 2011 but policy rates were kept at a intermission manner during the balance of the twelvemonth with cuts in hard currency modesty ratio and OMO operations for back uping liquidness. During 2012-13 so far, on turning grounds of lag in the economic system, the Reserve Bank utilizing available infinite to cut policy rates frontloaded the policy action in April 2012, but maintained position quo on rates in June and July 2012 as rising prices concerns persisted. The SLR was reduced in July 2012, to supply liquidness to ease recognition handiness to productive sectors.
11. Credit Delivery and Financial Inclusion
Bettering recognition bringing and fiscal inclusion have remained cardinal precedences of the Reserve Bank. In this way, one major measure was the debut of biometric smart card system for the kisan recognition card ( KCC ) , to be used in ATMs and manus held devices. The Financial Inclusion Plan ( FIP ) , under which the commercial Bankss set their marks for fiscal inclusion activities, has been doing significant advancement. The Reserve Bank has late issued guidelines on the execution of Electronic Benefit Transfer ( EBT ) and its convergence with FIP. This simple and convenient theoretical account is expected to further hike fiscal inclusion attempts. The Reserve Bank ‘s ain outreach programme have besides been helpful in distributing consciousness and bettering fiscal literacy. However, in position of the colossal undertaking of fiscal inclusion, there is a demand for the Bankss to upscale and mainstream their fiscal inclusion attempts.
12. Development & A ; Regulation of Financial Market
The Indian fiscal markets, peculiarly the foreign exchange market, turned volatile against the background of weakening domestic macroeconomic basicss and the euro country autonomous debt crisis, since August 2011. The Reserve Bank took a batch of steps to incorporate the volatility in the forex market as besides to promote foreign influxs. The Reserve Bank besides continued with its attempts to leave liquidness to the secondary G-sec market and to develop the corporate bond market farther by supplying for hazard transportations.
Decelerating growing, high rising prices and widening financial and current history spreads marked the Indian economic system ‘s public presentation in 2011-12. The economic system grew at its slowest gait in nine old ages with excavation, fabrication and building dragging growing down. Weakening of both domestic and external demand contributed to the lag. Importantly, in malice of decelerating growing, rising prices stayed high for larger portion of the twelvemonth. In response, the Reserve Bank persisted with fastening boulder clay October 2011 and paused before easing in April 2012. Decelerating growing, high rising prices and widening duplicate shortages, along with planetary flight to safety amidst a deepening euro country crisis put force per unit areas on the fiscal markets and the exchange rate during the twelvemonth.
Growth in 2012-13 is likely to hold stayed low with no perceptible marks of betterment from the preceding one-fourth. Salvaging and investing rates have declined in recent old ages, forcing the economic system ‘s possible growing rate down to about 7 per cent. The reform measures announced since mid-September 2012 can assist better growing topic to quick execution. As the policy environment, gait of clearances for undertakings and input supplies improve, the retarding force of stalled substructure investing on growing would worsen.