Monetary policy is one of the most effectual tools a Central Bank has at its disposal ( Maskay, 2007 ) and is used to accomplish the macroeconomic ends set by the authorities. This is done by modulating the two constituents of pecuniary policy which are involvement rates and money supply to keep balance in the economic system. The stock market is an of import index of the well-being of the economic system as stock monetary values reflect whether the economic system is making good or non. Motions in stock monetary values have a important impact on the macroeconomy and are hence likely to be an of import factor in the finding of pecuniary policy ( Rigobon and Sack, 2001 ) . The stock market is a fiscal market where equities are bought and sold either as an IPO ( Initial Public Offer ) in the primary market or exchange of bing portions between interested parties in the secondary market. Stockss are claims on existent assets and research workers have found considerable grounds that pecuniary policy can impact existent stock monetary values in the short tally ( e.g. Bernanke and Kuttner, 2005 ) . Monetary neutrality besides implies that pecuniary policy should non impact existent stock monetary values in the long tally ( Bordo, Dueker and Wheelock, 2007 ) .
The relationship between pecuniary policy and the stock market is best analyzed by looking at the consequence of both money supply and involvement rates on the stock market. Harmonizing to Bjornland and Leitemo ( 2009 ) , “ since stock monetary values are determined in a advanced mode, pecuniary policy, and in peculiar surprise policy moves, is likely to act upon stock monetary values through the involvement rate ( price reduction ) channel, and indirectly through its influence on the determiners of dividends and the stock return premium by act uponing the grade of uncertainness faced by agents ” . Interest rate can merely be defined as the cost of capital. The cardinal bank regulates the economic system by either increasing ( contractionary ) 0r decreasing ( expansionary ) the federal fund rates which is the rate at which Bankss borrow from federal militias and the price reduction rates which is the rate at which Bankss borrow from each other. An addition in the federal financess rate for illustration will do it more expensive for Bankss to borrow from the Federal Reserve and they will in bend addition the involvement rate thereby doing it more expensive for persons to borrow from Bankss. While some economic experts ( Smets ( 1997 ) , Bernanke and Kuttner ( 2003 ) etc ) argue that the cardinal bank should merely react to unexpected alterations in plus monetary values when the alterations affect rising prices, some other economic experts ( Cecchetti, Genberg, Lipsky and Wadhwani, 2000 ) argue that “ a cardinal bank concerned in stabilising rising prices about a specific mark degree is likely to accomplish superior public presentation by seting its policy instruments non merely in response to its prognosis of future rising prices and the end product spread, but to plus monetary values every bit good ” .
Thorbecke ( 1997 ) used assorted attacks to analyze the relationship between pecuniary policy and equity monetary values. In his first attack, he used Vector Auto Regression ( VAR ) utilizing the stock market index and ten size-ranked portfolios. Consequences from this attack showed that pecuniary tightening has the most negative and the strongest consequence on the equity monetary values of little houses and this is consistent with hypothesis by Gertler and Gilchrist ( 1993 ) that an of import channel of pecuniary policy is that it affects the adoption ability of little houses. Thorbecke ( 1997 ) , besides used the index of pecuniary policy as used by Boschen and Mills ( 1995 ) to place dazes and from this, he learned that expansionary pecuniary policy exerts a big and statistically positive consequence on monthly stock returns irrespective of whether it was measured by inventions in the federal financess rate and non borrowed militias or by narrative indexs. In the same twelvemonth, Thorbecke carried out an event survey with chief focal point on periods when the federal financess rate was targeted. He used Cook and Hahn ‘s ( ( 1989 ) federal financess informations ( 1974 – 1979 ) and added a likewise constructed series for the period August 1987 to December 1994 and found a important negative consequence on the per centum alteration in the Dow Jones Industrial Average from policy-induced alterations in the federal financess rate.
An apprehension of the pecuniary policy transmittal mechanism is really of import in the survey of the relationship between pecuniary policy and the stock market. This mechanism is the procedure through which pecuniary policy determinations flows into the economic system and the single links through which these determinations flow are called transmittal channels. The four chief transmittals channels are ; the involvement rate channel, the recognition channel, the exchange rate channel and the wealth channel. Bernanke and Kuttner ( 2005 ) argued that alterations in pecuniary policy are transmitted through the stock market via alterations in the values of private portfolios ( i.e. the wealth consequence ) , alterations in the cost of capital ( i.e. the involvement rate channel ) . Erhmann and Fratzscher ( 2004 ) laid accent on the recognition channel of pecuniary policy transmittal. They argued that when a recognition channel is at work for houses that are quoted on stock markets, their stock monetary values respond heterogeneously to pecuniary policy as monetary values of houses that are capable to comparatively larger informational dissymmetries would respond more strongly. This is because when there is a tightening of pecuniary policy for case, they will happen it harder to entree financess therefore their expected future net incomes is affected more than houses that are less capable to information dissymmetries. A tightening of pecuniary policy besides has a stronger impact on houses that depend extremely on bank loans for funding as Bankss cut down their overall supply of recognition ( Binder, 1992 and Kashyap, Stein and Wilcox, 1993 ) . Besides, Bankss tend to cut down recognition lines foremost to those clients whom they have the least information about thereby doing it more hard for houses with small or no publically available information to entree bank loans ( Gertler and Hubbard 1988, Gertler and Glichrist 1994 ) . Worsening recognition market conditions besides affect houses by weakening their balance sheets as the present value of collateral falls with lifting involvement rates and this consequence is stronger for some houses than for others ( and Gertler 1989, Kiyotaki and Moore 1997 ) . Other surveies e.g. Thorbecke ( 1997 ) and Perez-Quiros and Timmerman ( 2000 ) have besides shown that the response of stock returns to pecuniary policy is smaller for larger houses.
The fact that the market responds to unforeseen policy actions and non awaited 1s makes the survey of the consequence of pecuniary policy actions on equity monetary values more complicated ( Bernanke and Kuttner, 2005 ) . To work out this job, Kuttner ( 2001 ) came up with a technique that uses federal financess hereafters informations to mensurate surprises in involvement rate alterations. This technique achieves the purpose of separating between expected and unexpected pecuniary policy determinations in order to spot their effects. In their work, Jensen, Mercer and Johnson ( 1996 ) , Thorbecke ( 1997 ) , Jensen and Mercer ( 2002 ) and Rigobon and Sack ( 2002 ) besides looked at the consequence of pecuniary policy on the stock market utilizing hereafters informations utilizing Vector Auto Regressions ( VAR ) . Consequences have besides shown that positive surprises tend to hold a larger consequence on volatility of stock monetary values than negative surprises ( Bomfin, 2000 ) . This means that lower than expected interested rates leads to a higher per centum addition in plus monetary values than the per centum lessening in plus monetary values as a consequence of higher than expected involvement rates. This is besides consistent with the research on leverage-feedback hypothesis by Black ( 1976 ) and volatility-feedback hypothesis by French, Schwert and Stanbaugh ( 1987 ) .
Lamont, Polk and Saa-Requejo ( 2001 ) , Perez-Quiros and Timmerman ( 2000 ) among others use alteration in market involvement rates or official rates as their steps of pecuniary policy. Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans ( 1994 ) extracted pecuniary policy as the orthogonalized inventions from VAR theoretical accounts proposed by Campbell ( 1991 ) and Campbell and Ammer ( 1993 ) . Research methodological analysis based on this shows that the response of US stocks returns to pecuniary policy dazes based on federal fund rates show that returns of big houses react less strongly than those of little houses ( Thorbecke, 1997 ) , that the overall policy for stock returns is rather low ( Patelis, 1997 ) and that international stock markets react to both to alterations in their local pecuniary policies and that of the United provinces ( Conover, Jensen and Johnson, 1999 ) . Monetary policy dazes that are extracted from structural VAR theoretical accounts or from alterations in involvement rates utilizing monthly or quarterly informations are likely to subject to the endogeneity job i.e. they are improbable to be strictly exogenic ( Ehrmann and Fratzscher, 2004 ) .
In their survey, Ehrmann and Fratzscher ( 2004 ) analyzed the consequence of pecuniary policy on equity markets by looking at the returns of the S & A ; P500 index on yearss of pecuniary policy determinations of the Federal Reserve since the alteration of its revelation patterns in 1994 and until 2003. They found that US pecuniary policy dazes had a strong consequence on equity returns and that an unexpected tightening of pecuniary policy by 50 footing points decreases US equity returns by about 3 % on the twenty-four hours of the pecuniary policy determination while Bernanke and Kuttner ( 2005 ) found that on norm, an unforeseen 25 footing point cut in the Federal financess rate mark is associated with approximately 1 % addition in wide stock indexes. Ehrmann and Fratzscher ( 2004 ) besides found that equity returns respond more strongly to pecuniary policy dazes when FOMC alterations are unexpected, when the alteration in the pecuniary policy stance of the Fed is directional and during periods of high equity market volatility. Ehrmann and Fratzscher ( 2004 ) came to the undermentioned decisions in their survey ; that S & A ; P 500 shows a strong consequence of pecuniary policy on equity returns, that the consequence of pecuniary policy is stronger in an environment of increased market uncertainness, that that negative surprises ( i.e pecuniary policy has tightened less and loosened more than expected ) has larger effects on the stock market than positive surprises, that little houses are react more to policy dazes than big houses, that houses with low hard currency flows are affected more by US pecuniary dazes and that houses with hapless evaluations are more prone to pecuniary policy dazes than those with good evaluations.
There have besides been a few cross-sectional dimensions of the consequence of pecuniary policy on the stock markets in literature. Hayo and Uhlenbruck ( 2000 ) , Dedola and Lippi ( 2000 ) , Peersman and Smets ( 2002 ) , Ganley and Salmon ( 1997 ) etc are some economic experts who have analyzed this and overall, their findings show that the stock monetary values of houses in cyclical industries, capital-intensive industries and industries that are comparatively unfastened to merchandise are affected more strongly by pecuniary policy dazes ( Ehrmann and Fratzscher, 2004 ) .
While pecuniary economic experts normally associate restrictive/expansive pecuniary policy with higher/lower degrees of economic activity, fiscal economic experts discuss assorted grounds why alterations in the price reduction rate affect stock returns ( Durham, 2000 ) . Changes in the price reduction rate affect the outlooks of corporate profitableness ( Waud, 1970 ) and distinct policy rate alterations influence prognosiss of market determined involvement rates and the equity cost of capital. Modigliani ( 1971 ) suggests that a lessening in involvement rates boosts stock monetary values and hence fiscal wealth and lifetime resources, which in bend rises consumption through the public assistance consequence. Mishkin ( 1977 ) on the other manus suggests that lower involvement rates increase stock monetary values and hence decrease the likeliness of fiscal hurt, taking to increased consumer lasting outgo as consumer liquidness concerns abate.
Maskay ( 2007 ) analyzes the relationship between money supply and stock monetary values. His findings support that of the existent activity theoreticians who believe that there is a positive relationship between money supply and stock monetary values and difference that of the Keynesian militants who argue otherwise. He besides separates money supply into anticipated and unforeseen constituents and adds consumer assurance, existent GDP and unemployment rate as control variables. The consequence from his analysis shows that there is a positive relationship between alterations in the money supply and the stock monetary values thereby back uping the existent activity the theoreticians who argued that a alteration in money supply provides information on money demand, which is caused by future end product outlooks. An addition in money supply merely means that the demand for money is higher than it was earlier and this in consequence, signals an addition in economic activity. Selin ( 2001 ) argued that higher hard currency flows is as a consequence of higher economic activities and it leads to a rise in stock monetary values. The antonym is the instance when money supply is reduced. The consequence from his analysis on the consequence of awaited and unforeseen alteration in the money supply on stock market monetary values shows that awaited alterations in money supply affairs more than unforeseen alterations. This supports the critics of the efficient market hypothesis. Economists argue that based on the efficient market hypothesis, popularly known as Random Walk Theory ( defined as the proposition that current stock monetary values to the full reflect available information about the value of the house and there is no manner to gain extra net incomes by utilizing this information ) , anticipated alterations in money supply would non impact stock monetary values and merely the unforeseen constituent of a alteration in money supply would impact the stock market monetary values ( Clarke, Jandik and Mandelker, non found ) . Oppositions of efficient market hypothesis on the other manus argue that the stock monetary values do non reflect all the available information and hence stock monetary values can besides be affected by awaited alterations in money supply ( Corrado and Jordan, 2005 ) .
Some economic experts, ( Sprinkle ( 1964 ) , Homa and Jaffee ( 1971 ) , Hamburger and Kochin ( 1972 ) ) in the early 1970, s alleged that past informations on money supply could be used to foretell future stock returns. These happening where non in line with the efficient market hypothesis which states that all available information should be reflected in current monetary values ( Fama, 1970 ) significance that awaited information should non hold any consequence on current stock monetary values. Most economic experts believe that stock monetary values respond otherwise to the anticipated and unforeseen effects of pecuniary policy ( Maskay, 2007 ) . While advocators of the efficient market hypothesis ( Benanke and Kuttner ( 2005 ) etc ) hold that all available information is included in the monetary value of a stock, the oppositions argue otherwise and that stock monetary values can besides be affected by unforeseen alterations in money ( Hussain and Mahmood ( 1999 ) , Corrado and Jordan ( 2005 ) etc ) . The consequence of awaited and unforeseen alterations in money supply on stock monetary values was analyzed by Sorensen ( 1982 ) who found out that unforeseen alterations in money supply have a larger impact on the stock market than awaited alterations. Bernanke and Kuttner ( 2005 ) on the other manus analyze the impact of proclaimed and unheralded alterations in the federal financess rate and happen that the stock market reacts more to unheralded alterations than to proclaimed alterations in the federal financess rate which is besides in line with the efficient market hypothesis. Surveies by Husain and Mahmood ( 1999 ) have opposing consequences. They analyze the relationship between the money supply and alterations ( long tally and short tally ) in stock market monetary values and happen that alterations in money supply causes alterations in stock monetary values both in the short tally and long tally implying that the efficient market hypothesis does non ever keep.
Harmonizing to Cecchetti, et Al. ( 2000 ) , macroeconomic public presentation can be improved if the cardinal bank increases the short-run nominal involvement rate in response to impermanent “ bubble dazes ” that raise the stock monetary value index above the value implied by economic basicss. On the other manus, Bernanke and Gertler ( 2001 ) assumed in their research that the Central Bank can non state whether an addition in stock monetary values is driven by a bubble daze or a cardinal daze.
In 1974, Rozeff tested the efficient market hypothesis against a theoretical account he named “ prognostic pecuniary portfolio theoretical account ” . His survey showed that lagged money supply informations do non foretell future stock returns and that returns are related to contemporary and future alterations in the money supply. This survey was farther improved by Rogalski and Vinso ( 1977 ) who synchronized the informations so that the money supply informations were generated at intervals that were the same as those for the stock return informations and besides by taking proper history of the autocorrelation in the clip series. They concluded that causality appears to travel from stock monetary values to money supply and non from money supply to stock monetary values as is by and large assumed. The consequence of a survey by Darrat ( 1990 ) on the effects of pecuniary and financial policy on the returns on the Toronto Stock Exchange 300 Index showed that pecuniary policy does non Granger do stock returns. Bjornland and Leitemo ( 2009 ) , in their survey recognized the fact that the rearward causing from the stock market to pecuniary policy has been either ignored or non addressed plenty. Bhattacharya and Mukherjee ( aˆ¦aˆ¦.. ) investigated the nature of causal relationship between stock monetary values ( represented by the Bombay Stock Exchange ( BSE ) Sensitivity Index ) and macroeconomic sums ( money supply, involvement rates etc ) in India and their consequences showed that there is no causal link between stock monetary values and pecuniary policy ( money supply and involvement rates ) . Consequences from early econometric research by Homa and Jaffee ( 1971 ) , Keran ( 1971 ) , Reilly and Lewis ( 1971 ) , Hamburger and Kochin ( 1972 ) , Malkiel and Quant ( 1972 ) and Meigs ( 1972 ) showed a strong nexus between money
Supply and stock monetary values and besides argued that stock monetary values lag pecuniary alterations.
So far, we have seen that there is so a relationship between pecuniary policy and the stock market. While some economic experts argue that the relationship is positive, some others argue that a negative relationship exists. The research worker intends to analyse the relationship between pecuniary policy and the stock market utilizing the Taylor regulation. The relationship between money supply and plus monetary values will besides be analyzed in the class of this survey. Analysis will besides be carried out to happen out if stock monetary values lead or lag pecuniary policy and this will be carried out with the Granger contrary causality trial to prove for contrary causality between both money supply and stock monetary values and involvement rates and stock monetary values.
Following from the theory and reappraisal of relevant literature, this paper is aimed at replying the undermentioned inquiries ;
Does any relationship exist between involvement rates and stock monetary values?
Does any relationship exist between money supply and stock monetary values?
Does a alteration in involvement rates granger cause alterations in stock monetary values?
Does a alteration in money supply farmer cause alterations in stock monetary values?