Tourism can be an of import industry for a state and can bring forth a high degree of income. Tourism is going popular in the ASEAN member states and international reachings are lifting steadily. ASEAN stands for Association of South East Asiatic State and there are 10 member counties: Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei Darussalam, Vietnam, Lao PDR, Cambodia and Myanmar. The ASEAN states have a broad assortment of tourer attractive forces and services, humanistic disciplines and civilization. ASEAN will officially go AEC ( The Association of Southeast Asian Nations ) in 2015, which will accomplish even greater regional economic integrating. The growing rate of international touristry depends on there being attractive topographic points and political stableness within ASEAN member states. Harmonizing to the touristry state of affairs study from ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Wednesday, January 11, 2012, the figure of tourers to ASEAN states in 2011 increased by 79 million people ( an addition of 7.5 per centum from the twelvemonth 2010 ) . This was from inter part touristry by 43 percentand ( Tourism & A ; Sports, 2012 ; Association of Southeast Asiatic Nations, 2012 )

Figure 1.1 Share of International Tourist worldwide in 2011

Beginning: World Tourism Organization ( UNWTO )

The Chart above shows the portion of international tourers going around the universe in each continent. Europe is the most popular ( with 51 per centum of portion ) , followed by the North American ( 16 % ) , Asia ( 14 % ) , Middle East ( 5 % ) and Africa ( 5 % ) and in Oceania ( 1 % ) . Counties which are of involvement are in the ASEAN sector which had 8 per centum. In 2001 ASEAN states had the 4th largest portion of universe touristry. ( UNWTO, 2012 )

Table 1.1 Tourist reachings in ASEAN states, by nationality

## Nationality of Tourist reachings in ASEAN states

Unit of measurement: 1000s

## State of beginning

## Number of touristry reachings

## 2007

## 2008

## 2009

## 2010

European Union-25

6,566

6,936

6,669

6,971

China

3,926

4,472

4,202

5,416

Japan

3,701

3,624

3,214

3,351

Republic of Korea

3,539

2,657

2,449

3,286

USA

2,537

2,653

2,553

2,681

Australia

2,435

2,905

3,029

3,465

India

1,814

1,985

2,104

2,478

Canada

544

509

456

499

New Zealand

301

320

272

292

Beginning: ASEAN Tourism Statistics Database

The tabular array shows the figure of tourers who come to ASEAN member states during the old ages 2007 -2011. It can be noticed that the tendency in the figure of tourers to ASEAN states is increasing yearly. Hence, the touristry industry in ASEAN states has continued to derive popularity, with Chinese tourers being one the major additions. ( Association of Southeast Asiatic Nations, 2012 )

Table 1.2 International Tourist Arrival in 2005 – 2011

## International Tourist Arrival

Unit of measurement: 1000s

## State

## 2005

## 2006

## 2007

## 2008

## 2009

## 2010

Brunei Darussalam

127

158

179

226

157

214

Cambodia

1,422

1,700

2,015

2,125

2,162

2,508

Dutch east indies

5,002

4,871

5,506

6,429

6,324

7,003

Lao PDR

1,095

1,215

1,624

2,005

2,008

2,513

Malaya

16,431

18,472

20,236

22,052

23,646

24,577

Union of burma

660

653

732

661

763

792

Philippines

2,623

2,688

3,092

3,139

3,017

3,520

Singapore

8,942

9,752

10,288

10,116

9,681

11,639

Siam

11,517

13,822

14,464

14,597

14,150

15,936

Viet Nam

3,468

3,583

4,150

4,254

3,772

5,050

## Entire

51,287

56,914

62,286

65,604

65,680

73,752

Beginning: ASEAN National Tourist Office compiled in the ASEAN Tourism Database, as of 30 June 2012

The tabular array shows the figure of foreign tourers geting in each member state of the ASEAN community. International tourer reaching has increased steadily since 2005. It is assumed that, in the hereafter, tourers will go on to prefer the tourer finishs within the ASEAN part, and that this will be good to the touristry industry. ( Association of Southeast Asiatic Nations, 2012 )

The purpose of this survey is to foretell the future figure of foreign tourers in ASEAN member states based on past and present statistics. With such information, the ASEAN community will cognize what its portion of the future touristry market is likely to be and besides know which ASEAN member state is pulling the most international foreign tourers. This will assist the ASEAN community prepare and better their touristry sector and promote a development of the touristry industry to suit international visitants. The touristry industry contributes to the employment rate, and provides income distribution to visitants and local people. It besides leads to the development of substructure such as medical, and public conveyance installations. This will in bend consequence in an enlargement in concern of merchandises and services related to touristry for both domestic and foreign tourers. ( Chalit Santitararuck, 2007 ; Sawitree Kanploy, 2003 )

## 3.2 Theory

This survey will concentrate on the anticipation of the figure of foreign tourers coming in ASEAN with following constructs and related theories:

## 3.2.1 Tourism Concepts

Tourism is defined as the figure of tourers who travel from abodes or work topographic points for the ingestion of goods and services at finish touristry attractive forces. Harmonizing to ( Boonlert Chittangwattana, 2005 ) there are three facets: First, the trip is non being enforced and was planned. Second, the finish is chosen to accomplish tourers ‘ impermanent satisfaction, followed by a return to their fatherland. Third, the intent of the trip is non for work or gaining money because Travelers can hold more than one intent within a trip. ( Suwitcha Charoenpanich, 2010 )

## 3.2.2 Tourism Demand

Tourism Demand means the entire figure of individuals who travel, or wish to go, in order to utilize tourer installations and services at a finish. A status is that tourers must hold buying power and be willing to buy goods and services at the clip. Hence, an addition or lessening in the measure of goods and services at the finish would intend an addition or lessening in the demand for touristry. ( Karuna Boonmaruen, 2003 ; Sawanya Watthanasirisereekun, 2011 ; Sichol Intarasattayapong, 2009 ; Suwitcha Charoenpanich, 2010 )

## Characteristic of Tourism Demand

Tourism demand exhibits the undermentioned features:

## High Elasticity

The high snap of touristry demand means that a alteration in monetary value will instantly take to big alteration in the measure of tourer installation demanded. The grounds for this are that a traveller can happen other tourist attractive forces easy by going to alternate finishs. All goods and services in touristry are intangible because they are in signifier of satisfaction, exhilaration and merriment. If a tourer attractive force additions popularity at any one clip, so it can pull a high degree of touristry. Conversely, if a tourer attractive force does non fulfill tourer demands, so tourers can happen options alternatively. These factors result in the alteration in the demand for goods and services. Tourism, for most people, is considered to be a luxury point compared to other merchandises. Although the ingestion of goods and services in touristry is likely to increase, touristry is non the same as a consumer merchandises which are normal goods. ( Mathieson & A ; Well, 1982 )

## Resultant an addition in the ingestion of other merchandises

Because touristry merchandises. Caused by a combination of different types of merchandises and services together, such as when visitants to the attractive force. There is a demand for the service vehicles. I besides want to consumer goods and services every bit good.

## Tourism demand is sensitive

The demands of tourers may alter quickly, and can increase or diminish depending on the peculiar goods or services. Some factors that can impact touristry demand are natural catastrophes, economic fluctuations, and political instability. There are besides other factors such as the fiscal wellness of the travellers themselves, occupation, or call off the plan before acquiring the incorrect feeling.

## Seasonal factors

Another of import characteristic relates to the clip of twelvemonth and the conditions. To ensue in an addition or lessening in the demand for travel to the seasonal nature of the tourer attractive force, such as the attractive force to some of the most beautiful seasons merely or topographic points that have particular activities that are different from other attractive forces. ( Karuna Boonmaruen, 2003 ; Sawanya Watthanasirisereekun, 2011 ; Suwitcha Charoenpanich, 2010 )

## Structure of Tourism Demand.

## 1. Tourism is seasonal

Will happen due to the handiness of attractive forces such as clime, one-year festival and popularity of seasonal tourer attractive forces. They besides depend on the handiness of tourers, for case, vacations or during school interruptions.

## 2. Tourism Demand Growth Rate

Expansion in touristry cause driving factor and inducement factors that attract more tourers toward tourer attractive forces.

## 3. Tourist beginning

Tourists from different beginnings will hold different demands. If we know the demands of the different types of tourer in each ASEAN state, Governments and direction services can be after to run into the demands of the visitants. For illustration, if a peculiar tourer resort merely attracts working category tourers from certain states, so it may non be deserving set uping expensive eating houses or constructing luxury hotels at that place.

## 4. Leisure clip and adjustment demand

It is one portion of the touristry demand and are critical constituent that contributes to the demand for other merchandises, such as the ingestion of goods and services.

## 5. Average Cost

The mean cost per tourer. This will impact the host state ‘s income.

## 6. Manner of transit

The types of vehicles that transport tourers from beginning to finish are of import constituents in the touristry industry. Most tourers travel by plane, coach and train. ( Karuna Boonmaruen, 2003 ; Sawanya Watthanasirisereekun, 2011 ; Suwitcha Charoenpanich, 2010 )

## 3.2.3 Tourism Demand Measurements

The measuring for touristry demand was developed from of import touristry demand theoretical accounts in four ways ( Akarapong Unthong, 2011 ) , including ;

1. Tourist reachings consist of both domestic and international tourers who travel to host state.

2. Sum of clip spent at a tourer attractive force and overnights including yearss and continuance in norm.

3. The figure of trips, for illustration, i.e. the frequence of inward tourers at finishs each twelvemonth.

4. Tourism outgo is defined as the cost to the tourer of points such as adjustment, nutrient, keepsake, etc.

## 3.2.4 Concept of Tourism Incentives

Harmonizing to Abraham Maslow ‘s theory of human travel behaviour, there is a “ Quintuple Hierarchical System ” . Maslow used this theory to explicate the motive of the tourers who make the trips off from their places, and he found that it comes from the demands of the organic structure. This is known as Maslow ‘s hierarchy of demands and is depicted in the signifier of a pyramid. At the lowest degree there is security, external respiration, and eating and as one moves up the pyramid there are other factors including relationships and self-pride, eventually ensuing in peace and felicity. This theoretical account is appropriate for touristry because the tourer is off from place and may still necessitate some of the things that define his or her life style. ( Maslow, 1970 )

McIntosh and Goeldnor proposed that travel inducement has four important facets. These are:

1. Physical Motivation, including inducements for physical and recreational athleticss, amusement and other inducements related to wellness.

2. Culture Motivation which is the desire to desire to cognize more about the civilization and faith.

3. Interpersonal Motivation, including a desire to run into new people and acquire to cognize new people while travel.

4. Status and Prestige Motivation means self-development and ego such as a concern trip and holding farther survey. ( Karuna Boonmaruen, 2003 ; Sawanya Watthanasirisereekun, 2011 ; Suwitcha Charoenpanich, 2010 )

## 3.2.5 Concept and Theory of Econometric

To calculate the figure of foreign tourers for ASEAN member states, the survey has embraced the construct and applications of the econometric theory utilizing clip series analysis. To analyse clip series informations ‘s stableness, the unit root trial and the seasonal unit root trial theoretical account is used. The undermentioned theoretical accounts have been used: Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ( ARIMA ) theoretical account, Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscadasticity ( ARCH ) theoretical account, Generalized Conditional Heteroscadasticity ( GARCH ) theoretical account, Exponential GARCH ( EGARCH ) theoretical account and Threshold GARCH ( TGARCH ) .

1. Time Series Analysis

Time series analysis is used to analyse informations or observations that have changed throughout the clip or alterations in the variables over clip. The clip series shows a alteration in form from the past and is able to gauge future tendencies and predict informations alterations in the hereafter. Time series analysis is based on the alterations in the yesteryear. ( Piyanut Reungkajon, 2007 )

## 2. Unit root trial

( Sriboonchitta, 2004 ) explained that the Unit root trial will utilize the DF trial ( Dicky-Fuller trial ) ( Dickey and Fuller, 1981 ; Jacobs, 1998 ) and ADF trial ( Augmented Dicky Fuller Test ) . The Null hypothesis of the DF trial is described as: : and has the undermentioned equation:

( 2.1 )

In the unit root trial if will considered as stationary and if will be Nonstationary. However, there is an alternate to equation ( 2.1 ) which is:

( 2.2 )

That is which is equation ( 2.1 ) with if in equation ( 2.2 ) is negative, in equation ( 2.1 ) will be less than 1. Therefore, it could be concluded that rejecting and accepting agencies that and has integrating of order nothing ( Charemza & A ; Deadman, 1992 ; Maddala & A ; Kim, 1999 ) , ensuing in is stationary. And if could non be rejected, it means is nonstationary

If is random walk with impetus the theoretical account could be written as:

( 2.3 )

If is random walk with impetus and has additive clip tendency the theoretical account would be written as:

( 2.4 )

With t=Time, will be tested with as the account above. To sum up, Dickey and Fuller ( 1979 ) considered 3 different signifiers of decreasing equation for unit root trial. These equations are as follow:

Random walk

Random walk with impetus

Random walk with impetus and tendency

There is the interesting parametric quantity in every equation, “ ” . If will hold unit root by comparison with t-statistic that is calculated with suited value from Dickey-Fuller tabular array ( Enders, 2003 ) or equal to MacKinnon critical values ( Gujarati, 2003 ; Songsak Sriboonchitta & A ; Aree Wiboonpongse, 1999 )

However, the critical values will non alter if equation ( 2.2 ) ( 2.3 ) ( 2.4 ) are substituted by autoregressive procedures.

( 2.5 )

( 2.6 )

( 2.7 )

Sum of lagged difference footings to be imported at a new equation is big plenty for the Mistake footings to be a serially independent. And when the Dicky – Fuller trial is used with equation ( 2.5 ) , ( 2.6 ) and ( 2.7 ) , we will mention to as the Augmented Dickey – Fuller trial. The ADF trial statistic has asymptotic distribution, same as DF statistic, so it can utilize same critical values ( Gujarati, 2003 )

## The choice of the appropriate theoretical account from the Unit Root trial by Deterministic Regressors

This trial is to happen the best theoretical account between the theoretical account without tendency and intercept, the theoretical account with an intercept and the theoretical account with tendency and intercept by proving the statistical significance of the arrested development coefficients. ( Intercept or tendency ) , with the undermentioned stairss.

Measure 1 Making trial from the theoretical account with both intercept and tendency by utilizing the undermentioned equation:

( 2.8 )

Then prove the void hypothesis ( , by utilizing. If the void hypothesis is rejected. This means is stationary and take a theoretical account with both intercept and tendency.

Measure 2 If the void hypothesis is accepted in measure 1, there is unneeded regressor in the theoretical account. This may ensue in decreased power of the equation trial. Therefore, it must be tested for the statistical significance of the tendency ( ) in the equation by proving the void hypothesis with statistic. If coefficient of the tendency is non statistically important, so skip to step 3. However, if the coefficient of the tendency is statistically important, the non-stationary trial of the informations utilizing the standardized normal distribution is needed. If the void hypothesis is rejected, is stationary and will choose the theoretical account with both intercept and tendency, but if the void hypothesis is accepted, is non-stationary.

Measure 3 Estimate the theoretical account by equation ( 2.8 ) without the tendencies and prove the unit root utilizing. If the void hypothesis is rejected, is stationary and will choose the theoretical account without tendencies. However, if the void hypothesis is accepted, the trial of statistical significance of the intercept is needed with the void hypothesis ( ) with. If the value is undistinguished, so skip to step 4. However, if the intercept is statistical significance, the non-stationary trial of the informations utilizing the standardized normal distribution is needed. If the void hypothesis is rejected, is stationary and will choose the theoretical account with both intercept and tendency, but if the void hypothesis is accepted, is non-stationary.

Measure 4 Estimate the theoretical account by equation ( 2.8 ) without tendency and intercept. There is besides the unit root trials utilizing. If the void hypothesis is rejected, is stationary and will utilize the theoretical account without tendency and intercept. However, if the void hypothesis is accepted, it means that is non-stationary. ( Nuttakarn Graisorn, 2008 ; Piyanut Reungkajon, 2007 )

## 3. Seasonal Unit Root Test

When usage clip series informations for the seasonal unit root trial, consequence might be misstated. The ground is some clip series informations might hold seasonal non-stationary. Therefore, it is necessary to make seasonal trial which is unit root at the monthly frequence with the undermentioned equation:

( 2.9 )

With:

The void hypothesis of the standard stationary trial is when run t-test and ( the nothing hypothesis is accepted ) is standard non-stationary. For a standard semi-annual stationary trial, when run t-test and ( the nothing hypothesis is accepted ) is standard semi-annual non-stationary. And for the quarterly stationary trial, utilizing the F-test with void hypothesis when the F-test and the value did non differ from zero significantly. It statistically means that is quarterly non-stationary given that it is non significantly different from nothing at the 5 % significance degree and usage tested value from the tabular array of critical values aˆ‹aˆ‹for the seasonal unit root. ( Chalit Santitararuck, 2007 ; Franses, 1990 ; Lutkepohl & A ; Kratzig, 2004 )

## 4. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ( ARIMA ) Model

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ( ARIMA ) Model has been studied by Box and Jenkins ( 1976 ) , but Wold ( 1938 ) is the 1 who give the theoretical footing of the procedure or ARIMA system. Harmonizing to Wold, ARIMA theoretical account was developed including efficient designation and appraisal processs ( for procedure or AR, MA and ARIMA ) , every bit good as consequences which included seasonal clip series and the enlargement of boundary to include in Non-stationary procedure ( ARIMA ) . ( Chabachai Sawangsang, 2008 ; Jatuporn Jantamoke, 2007 ; Sriboonchitta, 2004 )

In general, most of clip series informations are Non-stationary because the clip series informations is from random procedure, but the theory of AR and MA refers to the clip series informations that are stationary. So, when the informations collected are non stationary, the differencing is must.

## Stationary and Nonstationarity

The tool, which is really utile in symbolic manner, are backward displacement operator, B. or slowdown operator, L. ( Sometimes we may exchange between the symbol B and L since they have the same significance ) . This is adopted as undermentioned equation:

( 2.10 )

If B is in the forepart of, this will switch informations back to 1-period of clip. In add-on, If we have ;

( 2.11 )

This means is shifted back by 2-period of clip

## First difference

( 2.12 )

If use backward displacement operator will acquire ;

( 2.13 )

## Second-order difference

( 2.14 )

is second-order difference

is 2nd difference

is D-order difference

## Autoregressive Procedures

Is the procedure of AR ( P ) which is AR procedure that has P-order in signifier of ARIMA ( P, vitamin D, q ) as follow ;

( 2.15 )

While ; is Changeless term

is autoregressive Parameter J

is Error term at clip T

Therefore, the mix of AR and MR in signifier of ARIMA with stationary informations will hold a signifier of ARIMA ( p,0, Q ) . Assuming AR ( 1 ) and MA ( 1 ) , ARIMA could be written as ARIMA ( 1,0,1 ) and equation is:

or

AR ( 1 ) MA ( 1 )

But if the information is nonstaionary, it is to happen difference “ vitamin D ” so that information will be stationary. This could be wrriten as follow:

ARIMA ( 1,1,1 )

First difference AR ( 1 ) MA ( 1 )

or

## 5. Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity ( ARCH ) Model

Most of the analysis of clip series will put the stochastic variable to be homoscedastic. When apply to some information, the discrepancy of error term is non a map of the independent variable. It will change over clip depending on the size of the error term in the yesteryear. It can reason that the discrepancy of the error term from the recession will depend on the volatility of the mistakes in the yesteryear. ( Sriboonchitta, 2004 )

The possibility of happening the mean and discrepancy of the clip series at the same time. Initially, the conditioned prognosis will hold superior anticipation truth than innate one. This could mention from Autoregressive Traveling Average ( ARMA ) theoretical account, which are as follows:

( 2.17 )

And Conditioned Forecast of is:

( 2.18 )

And averaging the conditional prognosis the error term of learned discrepancy that could calculate is as follow:

( 2.19 )

If alteration to innate prognosis, the consequence will be an mean value in Long tally of order which equal. The error term of innate prognosis could be written as:

( 2.20 )

Because, the unconditioned discrepancy is greater than the conditional discrepancy. Similarly, if the discrepancy of is nonstationary, it is possible to gauge tendency of altering in discrepancy by utilizing ARIMA Model. Given that is for the remainder of gauging equation, the conditional discrepancy of is as follow:

( 2.21 )

And given this means conditional discrepancy is nonstationary and will acquire the theoretical account for residuary as:

( 2.22 )

When = white noise procedure

If the value of equal to 0, estimated discrepancy is changeless discrepancy. , in the other manus, is the conditional discrepancy of that will alter and estimated value could be written as follow:

( 2.23 )

From those grounds, equation ( 2.2 ) is Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic ( ARCH ) Model and equation ( 2.3 ) is ARCH ( Q ) , given that or will incorporate 2 parts which are changeless term and volatility in the old period. This could be written as ARCH term. In instance of coefficient, these value could be found by utilizing Maximum Likelihood method. ( Chabachai Sawangsang, 2008 ; R. F. Engle, 1995 )

## 6. Generalized Autoregressive Condition Heteroscedasticity ( GARCH )

ARCH theoretical account by ( R. Engle, 2009 ) was developed by Bollerslev in 1986. The intent was to give Condition Variance as ARMA procedure by set mistake procedure like below equation:

( 2.24 )

Given the discrepancy of and

Since is White noise procedure is independent variable from the yesteryear, Conditional means of is equal to 0 and if we put expected value of will acquire:

Main point of happening conditional discrepancy of is set by:

Given and

Therefore, the conditional discrepancy of the is determined by in the equation ( 2.26 ) . This theoretical account is called Generalized Autoregressive Condition Heteroscedasticity ( GARCH ) theoretical account, which is abbreviated as GARCH ( P, Q ) . This theoretical account incorporate both Autoregressive and Moving Average to seek a discrepancy which is Heteroscedastic Variance. If p = 0 and q = 1, we will hold a theoretical account GARCH ( 0,1 ) that is the ARCH ( 1 ) and ARCH ( q = 1 ) . It is concluded that if all equal to 0, GARCH ( P, Q ) theoretical account is tantamount to the ARCH ( Q ) theoretical account. The cardinal characteristics of the GARCH theoretical account is the conditional discrepancy of the perturbations of the generated from the ARMA procedure. So it can anticipate that the remainder of the ARMA will demo the same feature. For case, the appraisal of with ARMA procedure, the Autocorrelation Function ( ACF ) which is a correlativity between the random variables in the clip interval of the same procedure, and Partial Autocorrelation Function ( PACF ) of ( remainders ) should be indicated the white noise procedure and the ACF of the squares remainders to help in the designation of the order of the GARMA procedure. ( Chabachai Sawangsang, 2008 ; R. Engle, 2009 ; Francq & A ; Zakoian, 2010 ; Nuttakarn Graisorn, 2008 ; Sriboonchitta, 2004 )

## 7. Diagnostic Checking

The creative activity of equation and gauging the parametric quantities have to be verify If the theoretical account ‘s equations is appropriate or non and which signifier of the equation is the best utilizing the undermentioned trial.

## 7.1 Ljung-ox Q-statistic trial

Ljung-ox Q-statistic trial is to happen out that this self-correlation of residuary in each interval K are independent or non.

The Hypothesis are as follows.

and

Caculated as equation 2.2.1 that is:

When

is the self-correlation sequence, J, where J = 1, aˆ¦ , K

T is the figure of observations.

For the remainder of the estimated ARIMA theoretical account, has Distribution with the Degree of Freedom equal to the sum of self-correlation subtraction the figure of parametric quantities of Autoregressive ( AR ) and Traveling Average ( MA ) derived from an appraisal or k – m.

Will accept the void hypothesis when is the independent remainder of K and will reject the void hypothesis when has the self-correlation at least one value in the non-zero remainder. ( Chabachai Sawangsang, 2008 ; Piyanut Reungkajon, 2007 )

## 7.2 Information Criteria

When we have many appropriate theoretical accounts, ( Nuttakarn Graisorn, 2008 ; Piyanut Reungkajon, 2007 ) the construct of happening the best theoretical account is must. We will see Akaike Information Criterion ( AIC ) and Schwartz Criterion ( SC ) . The theoretical account that give the smallest value of AIC and SC will be the best theoretical account. Akaike Information Criterion ( AIC ) and Schwartz Criterion ( SC ) would be calculated as follow:

Akaike Information Criterion ( AIC ) ( 2.28 )

Schwartz Criterion ( SC ) ( 2.29 )

Where

is the figure of parametric quantities estimated.

E is a figure of observations.

is the value of log likeliness map that usage estimated parametric quantities.

## 8. Forecasting

The survey is divided into three stages ; the Historical Forecast, the Ex-post Forecast and the Ex-ante Forecast. The Historical Forecast is to foretell informations get downing from the past up to certain period of clip. The prognosis in the hereafter has restrictions of prognostic truth of the informations and how much it could be dependable. The ARIMA Model is suited for short-run prediction. So in order to happen out how much it is accuracy in prediction, the Ex-post Forecast is used. This Ex-post Forecast will calculate the information that is really go oning. For illustration, to cut down the figure of observations of the clip series from the all n informations to the n-5 informations, and so run the arrested development informations for the RMSE ( Root Mean Squared Error ) and to Ex-post prognosis 5 informations for comparing with the existent information and besides value of RMSE. We will utilize this statistical information for choice standards. Once we find the appropriate theoretical account, it will be used in the anticipation.

## Figure 3.2 shows the prognosis period

Estimation Period Ex-post Forecast Ex-ante Forecast

Time

Beginning: Pindyck and Robinfeld ( 1998 )

After choosing a theoretical account used to stand for clip series informations. We will make the Ex-ante Forecast, that is, to calculate period that is non really go on. ( Nuchsara Gaysornpratoom, 2007 ; Pindyck & A ; Rubinfeld, 1998 )

## 9. Testing the truth of the anticipations.

This survey will measure the anticipation by expression at the Root Mean Squared Error, which is a step of the difference between the existent value and the estimated value by the theoretical account. If the RMSE of the theoretical account, in norm, is low, it means the theoretical account can gauge closely to existent value ( Pindyck and Rubinfeld, 1998 ) . Therefore, if the RMSE is equal to zero, this means that the mistake does non happen in the theoretical account. Therefore, RMSE could be calculated as follow: ( Chabachai Sawangsang, 2008 ; Nuchsara Gaysornpratoom, 2007 ; Pindyck & A ; Rubinfeld, 1998 )

Given that

is estimated value from the theoretical account

is existent value

T = figure of periods used to gauge the theoretical account

## 3.3 Definition

Tourism is defined as the temporal trip from one topographic point to another for relaxation, exhilaration or perusal and is based on the willingness of travellers. ( Nikom Jarumanee, 1993 )

Foreign tourer is defined as aliens who visit and stay in designated state no less than 24 hours and no longer than 60 yearss. In add-on, the intent of travel is non for lasting business or for a lasting stay. ( Boonlert Chittangwattana, 2005 )

## 4. Literature Reappraisal

To analyze the tendency of international touristry in ASEAN and its factors, the undermentioned paperss and research documents are used:

( Goh & A ; Law, 2002 ) studied about “ Modeling and calculating touristry demand for reachings with stochastic nonstationary seasonality and intercession ” . This paper showed the usage of clip series SARIMA and MARIMA with intercessions in calculating touristry demand. It used 10 series informations. Augmented Dickey-Fuller trials indicated that all the series were seasonal no stationary. There were important intercessions such as relaxation of the issue of out-bound visitants visas, the Asiatic fiscal crisis, the handover and the bird grippe. These intercessions were identified with important trial consequences and expected marks. The prognosiss were obtained by utilizing theoretical accounts that included stochastic nonstationary seasonality and intercessions, SARIMA and MARIMA with intercession analysis, and had the highest truth when compared with other eight clip series theoretical account.

( Chalit Santitararuck, 2007 ) studied about “ Forecasting the Number of Foreign Tourist in Thailand by ARIMA Method ” . This paper was intended for usage in the planning and operation of involved bureaus and organisation. It was based on monthly informations between January 1997 and December 2006 and covered 120 observations. The prediction used the Box-Jenkin analytical technique. Harmonizing to the findings, it found the presence of intercept and tendency. As the informations are monthly clip series, the trial of seasonal stationary was used. The consequence showed no seasonal unit root but there was the standard unit root holding the value more than Franses ‘s critical value at 5 % statistically important degree. To happen the most appropriate theoretical accounts, consideration was made on Akaike information standard, Schwaz standard, Root Mean Square Error, Theil ‘s Inequality Coefficient and Adjusted RA? , Harmonizing to the analysis, it was found that the most suited theoretical account for prediction was Changeless AR ( 2 ) AR ( 3 ) AR ( 9 ) AR ( 24 ) SAR ( 6 ) SAR ( 36 ) MA ( 36 ) . The consequence, from the prediction in period of Ex-post Forecast, give the figure which were closed to the existent figure of tourer with difference in scope -2.53 % to 4.08 % . Furthermore, the Ex-ante prognosis predicted that from January 2007 to April 2007, the figure of foreign tourer reachings would be 1,311,693 ; 1,242,101 ; 1,267,324 ; and 1,221,649 people severally.

( Min, 2008 ) studied “ Forecasting Nipponese touristry demand in Taiwan utilizing an intercession analysis ” . The intent of the survey was to happen out if two state of affairss – the 9-21 Earthquake in 1999 and the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome eruption in 2003 – had a impermanent or long-run impact on the inward touristry demand from Japan. A comparative survey was used to see if intervention analysis produces better prognosiss when it was compared with prognosiss without intercession analysis. The informations that were used in this survey were monthly tourer reachings from Japan to Taiwan during January 1979-September 2006. The first 321 observations ( January 1979-September 2005 ) were used to develop two probationary theoretical accounts, with and without intercession analyses, and so compared with the known values ( October 2005-September 2006 ) to prove for calculating truth. The consequences showed that the consequence of both catastrophes on Nipponese inward touristry was merely temporarily, and the prediction efficiency of ARIMA with intercession was better than a theoretical account without intercession.

( Song & A ; Li, 2008 ) studied “ Tourism demand patterning and calculating – A reappraisal of recent research ” . The paper reviewed the published surveies on touristry demand patterning and calculating since 2000. One of of import findings was that the ways used in analysing and calculating the demand for touristry have been more varied when compared to other articles. In add-on, the survey showed that there was no individual theoretical account that systematically outperforms other theoretical accounts in all state of affairss. Furthermore, the survey identified some new research waies, including an improving in the prediction truth through forecast combination of both qualitative and quantitative prediction, touristry rhythms and seasonality analysis, events ‘ impact appraisal and hazard prediction.

( Chang, Sriboonchitta, & A ; Wiboonpongse, 2009 ) studied about “ Modeling and calculating touristry from East Asia to Thailand under temporal and spacial collection ” . The paper used an historical analysis of monthly seasonal fluctuations of international tourer reachings from East Asia to Thailand utilizing clip series from 1971 to 2005, and to calculate temporal and spacial tourer Numberss to Thailand from 2006 to 2008. In add-on, this paper used the Box-Jenkins method to prove the seasonal unit root. This survey analyzed both the occupant and non-resident travellers by making the unit root trial and the seasonal unit root trial based on appraisal theoretical account choice and prediction. The research workers besides used Box-Jerkins ARIMA theoretical account and seasonal ARIMA theoretical account, coupled with the figure of visitants was expressed as the season. Fitted ARIMA and Seasonal ARIMA could calculate the sum of tourers from East Asia in the old ages 2006 – 2008 really good. In add-on, the monthly and one-year prognosiss can be obtained from Temporal and Spatial Aggregation.

## 5. Purpose of the survey

5.1 To calculate the figure of international tourer reachings in ASEAN member states.

5.2 To happen the Trend of the ability to vie between Thailand and the remainder of ASEN members in the international touristry industry.

## 6. Advantages of the survey

6.1 The consequence from foretelling the tendency of figure of tourer reachings in ASEAN can be used as a usher for authorities or private bureau analysis and planning.

6.2 The consequences of the research can be applied to foretell the figure of foreign tourers who come to ASEAN states, and could be used to assist the touristry industry prepare for the hereafter. The Data will be used in the analysis and compared the fight among ASEAN member states.

## 7. Research Designs, Scope and Methods

## 7.1 Scope of the Study

This paper is a survey about the calculating the reaching of international tourers in ASEAN member states. There are 10 states in ASEAN, but in this survey merely six states are used. These are: Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Laos PDR and Cambodia. Adequate information is non available at this clip for Myanmar, Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia and Vietnam. In this survey, we used secondary monthly informations over a 10-year period sing the figure of tourer reachings from the twelvemonth 2002 to the twelvemonth 2011 which is a sum of 720 months.

## 7.2 Conceptual Framework / Model

Stationary

Unit root trial

Non stationary

ARMA

Seasonal unit root

ARIMA

SARIMA

GARCH

Diagnostic checking

Forecasting rating

## Conceptual Model

For the conceptual model, I will prove if the information is stationary or non by utilizing the unit root trial. If the information is stationary, the ARMA theoretical account will be used. But if the information is Nonstationary, the trial the Seasonal unit root is must be done. If there is no seasonal unit root to be found, so the ARIMA theoretical account will be used. If there is the seasonal unit root, the SARIMA theoretical account will be chosen alternatively. The following measure is to prove the GARCH theoretical account. When we found the best theoretical account, so I will make the Diagnostic Checking and the last measure is to convey the best theoretical account within construct of GARCH to calculate the figure of visitants to the ASEAN member states in the hereafter.

The survey calculating the figure of foreign tourers who come to the 6 ASEAN states ( mentioned antecedently ) involves utilizing a theoretical account that uses a mix of bothAR and MA in the signifier of the ARIMA ( P, O, Q ) presuming AR ( 1 ) and MA ( 1 ) is written in the signifier ARIMA ( 1,0,1 ) as the undermentioned equation:

When is the figure of tourer reachings to ASEAN in clip T

is the clip series observation mean

is an autoregressive parametric quantity ( one = 1, aˆ¦ , P )

is the traveling mean parametric quantity ( j = 1, aˆ¦ , Q )

is an independent and identically distributed mistake term

## 7.3 Data Collection

The informations used in this survey to foretell the figure of international tourer reachings in the ASEAN states is secondary monthly informations for 10 old ages from the twelvemonth 2002 to 2011 in six ASEAN states, including Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Lao PDR and Cambodia.

## 7.4 Research Methodology / Data Analyzing Method

The information in this survey is based on international tourer reachings around the universe that travel to the ASEAN-6 states have used monthly secondary informations for 10 old ages from 2002 to 2011in a sum of 720 months.

## 7.4.1 Unit Root Test

To analyse informations, It is necessary to make stationary trial foremost based on the Augmented Dickey Fuller ( ADF ) method. If the trial consequences show that the t-test value of is less than the critical significance degree of 0.01, it will reject the void hypothesis and accept. This indicates that the informations used in this survey is the Integrated of Order 0 which can be represented by that is stationary and taking slowdown length that will hold the autocorrelation job and acquire minimal degree of the Schwarz Information Criterion ( SIC ) .

## 7.4.2 Seasonal Unit Root Test

Using trial method by Franses with the theoretical account from equation ( 2.9 ) , the Seasonal Unit Root test The will hold the Null hypothesis from the standard one-year stationary trial that is, When run t-test and ( accept the void hypothesis ) , this means that has the Nonseasonal stochastic tendency. Then, we will make semi-annual stationary trial. Given When run t-test and ( accept the void hypothesis ) , this means that has the Nonseasonal stochastic tendency. For seasonal stationary trial, the F-test will be used get downing from to with the degree of statistical significance of 5 % . If the value from the trial is greater than the critical degree, and the F-test is no different significantly from nothing ( the nothing hypothesis ) , this indicates that the informations are seasonal nonstationary.

## 7.4.3. Behavior and Estimate Model Value by GARCH method

This method will utilize stationed informations of tourer reachings to make the best theoretical account for the prediction the figure of international tourer reachings in the hereafter. The procedure of making the theoretical account and appraisal are as follow:

7.4.3.1 Create Correlogram to demo the ACF and PACF for taking an appropriate signifier of clip series ARMA ( P, Q ) which will be used in the survey.

7.4.3.2 Estimate the value of mean equation by utilizing the slowdown P and Q from the Correlograme analysis in 7.4.3.1

7.4.3.3 Choose P and Q for the appropriate theoretical account of the procedure:

GARCH ( P, Q ) is from the discrepancy equation:

7.4.3.4 Estimate the theoretical account parametric quantities which were chosen from P and Q by 7.4.3.2 and 7.4.3.3, so find the parametric quantities if it is differ significantly from zero or non. This can be archived by run the t-statistic trial and look into the stationary of ARMA theoretical account. If the value does non fit the conditions, so we will utilize the other value of P and Q values aˆ‹aˆ‹unit it meet the conditions.

7.4.3.5 Verify that the appropriate theoretical account for the Residual will non hold Serial Correlation. Then run test. If the void hypothesis is accepted, this means the theoretical account is appropriate.

– Volition accept the void hypothesis when significance that the residuary is independent of K.

– will reject the void hypothesis when This means there are more than one self-correlation in The residuary that is non-zero.

7.4.3.6 Choose the best format for the GARCH theoretical account by sing the Akaike Information Criterion ( AIC ) and Schwarzt Criterion ( SC ) . If we get the smallest value, which would be the best theoretical account. This can be calculated as follows:

Akaike Information Criterion ( AIC ) ( 2.22 )

Schwartz Criterion ( SC ) ( 2.23 )

Where is the figure of parametric quantities estimated.

E is a figure of observations.

is the log likeliness map that usage parametric quantities to be estimated

## 7.4.4 Forecasting.

Use the best theoretical account from each construct of GARCH to calculate the figure of foreign tourers in the hereafter. The values aˆ‹aˆ‹will be compared with the existent information, to happen the best construct for calculating the figure of foreign tourers who come to see in ASEAN member states. To gauge the volatility utilizing the RMSE ( Root Mean Square Error ) . The lower RMSE value, the higher possible to foretell.

The equation used to cipher is:

Given that

= an estimated value from the theoretical account

= existent value

T = figure of periods used to gauge the theoretical account

Applied from ( Chabachai Sawangsang, 2008 ; Nuttakarn Graisorn, 2008 )